It's been a good week for BankFinancial Corporation (NASDAQ:BFIN) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 6.3% to US$9.10. BankFinancial reported US$51m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.61 beat expectations, being 3.4% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the consensus from BankFinancial's two analysts is for revenues of US$48.6m in 2021, which would reflect a small 5.1% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 19% to US$0.49 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$48.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.49 in 2021. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The consensus price target fell 19% to US$8.50, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the annual results.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast revenue decline of 5.1%, a significant reduction from annual growth of 0.1% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.6% next year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - BankFinancial is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that BankFinancial's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of BankFinancial's future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on BankFinancial. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2022, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for BankFinancial you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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