- Fed likely to delay raising rates: The Fed will likely delay raising rates in the first half of 2019 as it continues to engineer a soft landing
- Unemployment continues to drop: The unemployment rate is expected to reach its lowest point this business cycle in 3Q19
- Fed expected to leave rates unchanged: Given current conditions, the Fed is expected to wait until 4Q19 before raising rates again
HOUSTON, Feb. 26, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- According to the latest Economic Outlook published this week by BBVA Research, GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2019 and 2.0 percent in 2020, while the risk of recession remains elevated over the next 24 months.
The unemployment rate increased to 4.0 percent in January, as the government shutdown pushed a large number of workers out of the labor force or caused them to be reported as unemployed. Despite this, the unemployment rate is expected to reach its lowest point in this business cycle in third quarter 2019 and the team anticipates job growth to continue to decelerate.
According to the report, the Fed is expected to wait until fourth quarter 2019 before raising rates again. This is based on current conditions -- elevated uncertainty, financial tensions and weaker growth fundamentals -- and the fact that actual and expected inflation are likely to undershoot the Fed's target in the first half of 2019.
The February Economic Outlook, authored by BBVA Research Senior Economist Boyd Nash-Stacey, also features a view of the labor market, interest rates, oil prices, and inflation for 2019. For more details, read the full report here.
About BBVA Group
BBVA (BBVA) is a customer-centric global financial services group founded in 1857. The Group has a strong leadership position in the Spanish market, is the largest financial institution in Mexico, it has leading franchises in South America and the Sunbelt Region of the United States; and it is also the leading shareholder in Garanti, Turkey's biggest bank for market capitalization. Its diversified business is focused on high-growth markets and it relies on technology as a key sustainable competitive advantage. Corporate responsibility is at the core of its business model. BBVA fosters financial education and inclusion, and supports scientific research and culture. It operates with the highest integrity, a long-term vision and applies the best practices. More information about BBVA Group can be found at bbva.com.
About BBVA Compass
BBVA Compass is a Sunbelt-based financial institution that operates 645 branches, including 332 in Texas, 89 in Alabama, 63 in Arizona, 61 in California, 45 in Florida, 37 in Colorado and 18 in New Mexico. BBVA Compass ranks among the top 25 largest U.S. commercial banks based on deposit market share and ranks among the largest banks in Alabama (2nd), Texas (4th) and Arizona (6th). BBVA Compass has been recognized as one of the leading small business lenders by the Small Business Administration (SBA) and ranked 6th nationally in the total number of SBA loans originated in fiscal year 2017. Additional information about BBVA Compass can be found under the Investor Relations tab at bbvacompass.com. For more BBVA Compass news, follow @BBVACompassNews on Twitter, visit newsroom.bbvacompass.com, or visit bbva.com.
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