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Beacon Roofing (BECN) Up 11.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Zacks Equity Research

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN). Shares have added about 11.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Beacon Roofing due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Beacon Roofing (BECN) Q3 Earnings & Sales Miss Estimates

Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. reported lower-than-expected results in third-quarter fiscal 2019. The top and bottom lines declined from the prior-year period, thanks to persistent weather challenges.

Beacon Roofing reported adjusted earnings of 92 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.24 by 25.8%. The reported figure also decreased 22% from $1.18 per share a year ago. Fiscal third-quarter results were affected by weather challenges, primarily resulting from 25-30% more rain days than the prior year. This translates to an adverse impact of approximately $85 million on sales and 20 cents on adjusted EPS.

Sales & Operating Highlights

Net sales of $1.92 billion lagged the consensus mark of $1.99 billion by 3.4% and decreased 0.5% year over year. The decline was due to lower sales of non-residential roofing products (down 2.4%) and complementary products (declining 3.6%). This was partly offset by higher residential roofing product sales (up 2.9%).

Meanwhile, net sales from existing markets were down 1.1% from the year-ago period, mainly due to higher rainfall across the United States that impacted contractor installations.

Gross margin contracted 90 basis points (bps) to 24.6%.

Operating expenses increased 60 bps to 20.7% of total net sales during the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA declined 15.9% year over year to $157.8 million.

Cash Position

As of Jun 30, 2019, Beacon Roofing had cash and cash equivalents of $27.7 million, up from $27.6 million reported in the corresponding period of 2018. Cash used in operations was $194.9 million in the first nine months of fiscal 2019 versus $1 million in the comparable year-ago period.

Fiscal 2019 Guidance Lowered

The company now expects total sales in the range of $7.1-$7.2 billion compared with $7-$7.35 billion expected earlier.

Adjusted EBITDA is expected in the range of $490-$510 million versus earlier projection of $540-$610 million. Adjusted earnings per share are now likely to be in the range of $2.30-$2.50 compared with the prior guidance of $2.90-$3.35.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision. The consensus estimate has shifted -11% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Beacon Roofing has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Beacon Roofing has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.



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