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Bear Of The Day: Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS)

Brian Bolan

Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) should probably be poised to move higher, but earnings estimates are moving lower and the purpose of this article is to show why this stock is the Bear of the Day.

Description

Advanced Drainage Systems,  designs, manufactures and markets thermoplastic corrugated pipes and related water management products.The company was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Hilliard, Ohio.

Tailwinds

Recently, the outline for the upcoming infrastructure bill was leaked and we saw a lot of places that a company like WMS could benefit.  I saw a lot of sewer and pipeline projects and I just skimmed the document - mostly because we cannot be sure that it is the real thing at this point.

The end idea is that there is going to be some major federal spending coming down the pike, but maybe this isn't in the analyst's models.

Earnings History

This is a mild sore spot for WMS.  The company has missed on 3 of the last four earnings reports.  That one that was not a miss was a meet, so no beats in the last four reports.

Estimate Revisions

The Zacks Rank is based on earnings estimates from analysts at multiple brokerage firms. When the consensus is moving lower, the stock tends to slide in terms of the rank.  Right now, we are seeing a host of company's raise guidance as a result of lower tax rates and those that are seeing even the smallest of decreases find their way to being the lowest Zacks Rank.

This is the case with WMS who has seen only a two penny move lower in earnings estimates for fiscal 2019.  60 Days ago, the Zacks Consensus Estimate was at $0.93 and now it is at $0.91.

This is not a huge move lower or one that would get this stock on your list of stocks to potentially short.   

The lesson learned from this Bear of the Day is that most stocks are seeing estimate increases.  That means the ones that are not moving significantly higher are being left behind.  That doesn't make them short candidates, and it could even suggest that these are the names are likely next to see estimates move higher!

Chart

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. Price and Consensus

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. Price and Consensus | Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. Quote

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