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Is a Beat Likely for AbbVie (ABBV) This Earnings Season?

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We expect AbbVie ABBV to beat expectations when it reports second-quarter 2021 results on Jul 30, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 6.50%.

The large drugmaker’s performance has been pretty impressive, with earnings beat in each of the trailing four quarters. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.08%, on average.

AbbVie’s stock has gained 10% so far this year compared with an increase of 11.8% for the industry.

Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Investment Research


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Factors to Consider

Sales of the company’s key drugs are expected to have increased in the second quarter on the back of robust demand despite the COVID-19 pandemic.

Second-quarter earnings are expected between $3.05 and $3.09 per share. AbbVie expects adjusted revenues of approximately $13.6 billion in the second quarter, indicating year-over-year growth of nearly 30%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings and revenues stands at $3.11 per share and $13.71 billion, respectively.

In immunology, Humira’s demand in the United States has remained high despite lower new patient starts in the first quarter of 2021. U.S. sales of the drug are likely to have increased in the second quarter. Label expansion in pediatric patients with ulcerative colitis is likely to have brought additional revenues. However, Humira’s international sales are expected to have declined significantly due to the impact of biosimilars in Europe. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humira stands at $5.12 billion.

Sales of new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, reflected strong uptake during the last few quarters. The strong uptake is expected to have continued in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

In oncology, AbbVie markets Imbruvica in partnership with Johnson & Johnson JNJ and Venclexta in partnership with Roche RHHBY. Sales of the drugs are likely to have been strong in the soon-to-be reported quarter. However, lower new patient starts in the chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) indication for both Imbruvica and Venclexta due to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have hurt sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Imbruvica and Venclexta is pegged at $1.41 billion and $412 million, respectively.

AbbVie’s new HCV drug, Mavyret, recorded a significant decline in the past few quarters due to lower patient volumes amid the COVID-19 pandemic as well as rising competition. We expect the downtrend to have continued in the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mavyret stands at $469 million.

Sales of AbbVie’s aesthetics products — Botox cosmetic and Juverderm — were above pre-COVID levels during the first quarter of 2021, reflecting significant pent-up demand. Moreover, sales of the neuroscience franchise also showed strong growth in the first quarter of 2021. The trend is expected to have continued for both franchises in the soon-to-be reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for aesthetics and neuroscience products stands at $1.13 billion and $1.39 billion, respectively.

Investor focus will likely be on any update related to financial guidance for 2021 with the changing COVID-19 landscape.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for AbbVie this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.13 per share and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.11, is +0.86%.

Zacks Rank: AbbVie has a Zacks Rank #3.

AbbVie Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

AbbVie Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
AbbVie Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

AbbVie Inc. price-eps-surprise | AbbVie Inc. Quote

Another Stock to Consider

Here is a large drug stock that also has the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Pfizer PFE has an Earnings ESP of +2.33% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.


Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

Roche Holding AG (RHHBY) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) : Free Stock Analysis Report

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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Zacks Investment Research