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Is a Beat in Store for ExxonMobil (XOM) in Q4 Earnings?

Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM is set to report fourth-quarter 2022 results on Jan 31, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the integrated energy giant’s earnings per share of $4.45, excluding identified items, beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.88. The strong earnings have resulted from higher realized commodity prices and oil-equivalent production, and strong refining margins.

In the trailing four quarters, ExxonMobil beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice and missed the same once, delivering a surprise of 5.1%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Exxon Mobil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Exxon Mobil Corporation price-eps-surprise | Exxon Mobil Corporation Quote

Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ExxonMobil’s fourth-quarter earnings per share of $3.18 has witnessed one upward revision and four downward movements in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate suggests an increase of 55.1% from the year-ago reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues of $99.7 billion indicates a 17.3% improvement year over year.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for ExxonMobil this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: ExxonMobil has an Earnings ESP of +5.09%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at earnings of $3.34 per share, whereas the Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $3.18. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: ExxonMobil currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Factors to Note

Oil prices were significantly higher in the December quarter of last year. Higher commodity prices are likely to have aided exploration and production activities since a higher number of drilling rigs have gathered in prolific shale plays. Thus, ExxonMobil’s upstream operations are also likely to have been aided.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ExxonMobil’s daily production volumes is pegged at 3,826 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d), suggesting an improvement from 3,816 MBoe/d reported in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the company’s daily production volumes is 3,933.3 MBoe/d, indicating an increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Higher production and price are likely to have boosted XOM’s upstream operations.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other firms that you may want to consider, as these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

Enterprise Products Partners EPD has an Earnings ESP of +3.07% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Enterprise is scheduled to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPD’s earnings is pegged at 60 cents per share, suggesting an increase of 15.4% from the prior-year reported figure.

Chevron Corporation CVX has an Earnings ESP of +3.25% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Chevron is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Jan 27. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its earnings is pegged at $4.16 per share, suggesting a significant increase from the prior-year reported figure.

PBF Energy PBF has an Earnings ESP of +9.17% and a Zacks Rank #3.

PBF Energy is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 16. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBF’s earnings is pegged at $4.49 per share, suggesting a massive increase from the prior-year reported figure.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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Chevron Corporation (CVX) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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