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Is a Beat in Store For UPS in Q2 Earnings on E-Commerce Boom?

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United Parcel Service UPS is scheduled to report second-quarter 2021 earnings on Jul 27, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings has been revised upward by 20.4% in the past 90 days to $2.71 per share. Moreover, the company has an impressive earnings surprise history. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 54.8%, on average.

United Parcel Service, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

United Parcel Service, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
United Parcel Service, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

United Parcel Service, Inc. price-eps-surprise | United Parcel Service, Inc. Quote

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this earnings season.

UPS’ second-quarter performance is expected to have benefited from coronavirus-driven surge in e-commerce demand. Higher residential delivery volumes are likely to get reflected in the U.S. Domestic Package segment’s (contributes majority of the top line) revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average daily package volume (total) increased 19.88% on a year-over-year basis.

Revenues in the Supply Chain & Freight are likely to have been boosted by higher demand for freight forwarding. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Supply Chain and Freight revenues indicates 7.77% rise from second-quarter 2020’s reported number.

The International Package division is likely to have put up a good show on the back of strong outbound demand from Asia. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for International Package revenues suggests approximately 22.6% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

However, escalating operating expenses (due to rise in costs at all three segments: U.S. Domestic Package, International Package and Supply Chain & Freight units) is likely to have hurt the company’s bottom line.

Earnings Whispers

The proven Zacks model predicts an earnings beat for UPS this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Earnings ESP: UPS has an Earnings ESP of +1.72% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $2.76, 5 cents higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: UPS presently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Highlights of Q1 Earnings

UPS’ earnings (excluding $2.70 from non-recurring items) per share of $2.77 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.67. The bottom line surged in excess of 100% year over year. Owing to inflated volumes, quarterly revenues at UPS rallied 27% year over year to $22,908 million. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20,379.7 million.

Other Stocks to Consider

Investors interested in the broader Transportation sector may also consider American Airlines Group Inc. AAL, Herc Holdings HRI and Alaska Air Group ALK. These stocks too possess the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

American Airlines has an Earnings ESP of +12.27% and is Zacks #3 Ranked, presently. The company will release second-quarter 2021 results on Jul 22.

Herc Holdings has an Earnings ESP of +1.85% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company will release second-quarter 2021 results on Jul 22.

Alaska Air has an Earnings ESP of +23.77% and is currently a #3 Ranked player. The company will release second-quarter 2021 results on Jul 22.


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United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) : Free Stock Analysis Report

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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