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Below $500? Ether Price Seeks Floor After 40% Drop

The 40 percent month-on-month decline of ethereum's ether cryptocurrency has pushed the long-term price floor down to $300, the technical charts indicate.

As of writing, the world's second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is changing hands at $534, as per CoinMarketCap.

Stepping back, ether's sharp reversal from the Feb. 6 low of $555 (prices as per Coinbase) and the rally to near $1,000 in the subsequent days meant the cryptocurrency had established a strong price floor below $600. That now looks to have been pushed down.

Daily chart

Vitalik Wants You to Pay to Slow Ethereum's Runaway Growth

As seen on the chart above, ETH left lower highs around the key descending trendline, as the rally from Feb. 6 lows ran out of steam and sellers took over after the cryptocurrency fell below its 100-day moving average (MA) on March 6.

The transfer of power from bulls to bears pushed the price down to $450 on March 18 - the lowest level since Dec. 11.

During that process, the cryptocurrency also witnessed a head-and-shoulders reversal on March 14Â - indicating that the rally from the December 2016 low of $5.81 has ended and the bears have regained control. Further, a 50-day MA and the 100-day MA bearish crossover was confirmed on March 15.

Bitcoin Slides Below $8K, But Downside Could Be Limited

So, ETH will likely find acceptance below $546 (61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of December 2016 to January 2018 rally) and extend the drop to $300 (78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement) over the next couple of months.

View

  • The price floor looks to have dropped to $300.

  • That said, oversold conditions in the near-term may help ETH defend the March 18 low of $450.

  • Only a convincing move above the head-and-shoulders neckline resistance (former support now seen at $661) would abort the bearish view.

  • A move above $982 would signal a long-run bearish-to-bullish trend change.

ETH/BTC chart

  • The head-and-shoulders breakdown has opened the gates for a drop to BTC 0.045 (78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement).

  • In the short-term, oversold conditions could yield a minor corrective rally to the neckline resistance, currently seen around BTC 0.072.

  • A long-term bullish reversal is seen only above BTC 0.0895 (Feb. 26 high).

Ether image via Shutterstock

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