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Will it Be Better to Trim Positions in Turquoise Hill (TRQ) for the Time Being?

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Jose Karlo Mari Tottoc
·4 min read
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Massif Capital, an investment management firm, published its fourth-quarter 2020 Investor Letter – a copy of which can be downloaded here. A net return of 15.8% was recorded by the fund for the Q4 of 2020, above its MSCI ACWI benchmark that returned 14.68%. You can view the fund’s top 10 holdings to have a peek at their top bets for 2021.

Massif Capital, in their Q4 2020 Investor Letter said that they constructed a collar in their position in Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. (NYSE: TRQ), selling call options for 2022 at a $20 strike and using the proceeds to buy January 2022 puts on the position at a $7 strike. Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. is an international mining company that currently has a $2.1 billion market cap. For the past 3 months, TRQ delivered a decent 35.79% return and settled at $10.70 per share at the closing of January 27th.

Here is what Massif Capital has to say about Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. in their investor letter:

"Turquoise Hill remains a challenging company to evaluate and a problematic company to manage within our portfolio. The company holds rights to a world-class asset, but one with very different characteristics than Ivanhoe’s Kamoa Kakula. Kamoa is a flat, low depth, high-grade block of copper ore that is relatively easy to mine. Turquoise Hill’s OT mine is a deep underground mine with good grades and high tonnage, but it is very challenging to monetize. The planned extraction method, block cave mining, is still a relatively new approach to mining an asset in the grand scheme of things. The scale of the OT mine exacerbates the challenge. Management challenges compound technical risks. Rio-Tinto (the mine operator and developer via a 51% stake in Turquoise Hill) and Turquoise Hill seem to always be at odds with each other, and both parties seem to always be at odds with the Mongolian Government.

Although we have spent significant time underwriting the technical, managerial, and political risks associated with the investment, we are continuously surprised by how frequently issues occur for this company. With that in mind, we constructed a collar on the position during the fourth quarter, selling call options for January 2022 at a $20 strike and using the proceeds to buy January 2022 puts on the position at a $7 strike. This will allow us to confidently hold the position in the near term, knowing we have locked in a gain of at least 50% from our purchase price while still allowing for significant potential price appreciation from the current $12 price."

Richest Countries in the World by Natural Resources
Richest Countries in the World by Natural Resources

Copyright: tomas1111 / 123RF Stock Photo

Last December 2020, we published an article telling that Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. (NYSE: TRQ) was in 9 hedge fund portfolios. Its all time high statistics is 23. TRQ delivered a 67.76% return in the past 12 months.

However, our calculations show that Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. (NYSE: TRQ) does not belong in our list of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds.

The top 10 stocks among hedge funds returned 216% since the end of 2014 and outperformed the S&P 500 Index ETFs by more than 121 percentage points. We know it sounds unbelievable. You have been dismissing our articles about top hedge fund stocks mostly because you were fed biased information by other media outlets about hedge funds’ poor performance. You could have doubled the size of your nest egg by investing in the top hedge fund stocks instead of dumb S&P 500 ETFs. Below you can watch our video about the top 5 hedge fund stocks right now. All of these stocks had positive returns in 2020.

Video: Top 5 Stocks Among Hedge Funds

At Insider Monkey we scour multiple sources to uncover the next great investment idea. For example, Federal Reserve has been creating trillions of dollars electronically to keep the interest rates near zero. We believe this will lead to inflation and boost real estate prices. So, we recommended this real estate stock to our monthly premium newsletter subscribers. We go through lists like the 10 most profitable companies in the world to pick the best large-cap stocks to buy. Even though we recommend positions in only a tiny fraction of the companies we analyze, we check out as many stocks as we can. We read hedge fund investor letters and listen to stock pitches at hedge fund conferences. You can subscribe to our free daily newsletter on our website.

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.