The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. On the other hand, if you find a high quality business to buy (at the right price) you can more than double your money! For example, the Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation (NASDAQ:BGFV) share price has soared 196% return in just a single year. It's also up 44% in about a month. It is also impressive that the stock is up 83% over three years, adding to the sense that it is a real winner.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the last year Big 5 Sporting Goods saw its earnings per share (EPS) increase strongly. We don't think the exact number is a good guide to the sustainable growth rate, but we do think this sort of increase is impressive. So we're unsurprised to see the share price gaining ground. We're real advocates of letting inflection points like this guide our research as stock pickers.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that Big 5 Sporting Goods has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Big 5 Sporting Goods' TSR for the last year was 210%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Big 5 Sporting Goods has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 210% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 8% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Big 5 Sporting Goods (1 shouldn't be ignored) that you should be aware of.
But note: Big 5 Sporting Goods may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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