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Big Week Ahead for Economic Data

Sheraz Mian

Earnings Preview – Week of May 29th

The focus this holiday-shortened week will be on the labor market, with the May non-farm payroll report coming out on Friday. Many will be hoping that the jobs report will help wash away the disappointing readings from the last two months. Relative to where expectations stood ahead of the April and March reports, it may not be that difficult to meet or exceed expectations this time around. There are a number of other major economic reports on the docket as well, with Thursday and Friday particularly busy.

The first quarter 2012 earnings season is effectively over, though we still have a handful of companies yet to report results. As of Friday (05/25), a total of 492 companies in the S&P 500 have already reported. We will get results from 55 companies this week, including 3 from the S&P 500.

Total earnings increased a solid 7.8% in the first quarter, compared to the preceding quarter’s 6.4% growth pace. Approximately 67% of companies came ahead of expectations, with a median earnings surprise of a very good 3.2%. Most of the growth came from top-line gains, with total revenues increasing 5% from the year-earlier level. Relative to earnings beats, far fewer companies were able to beat revenue expectations, with only about 40% of the companies coming out with positive revenue surprises.  

Monday - 5/28

  • Memorial Day holiday

Tuesday - 5/29

  • Given the market’s well-justified European fixation, the Conference Board’s May Consumer Confidence report and the Case-Schiller’s April home price index may not get a lot of attention. But the expectation is for Consumer Confidence is to have modestly improved from April’s 69.2 level.

Wednesday - 5/30

  • The April Pending Home sales report from the National Association of Realtors is the only release today. Pending homes are those where the contract has been signed, but the sale hasn’t closed yet. Last week’s new and existing home sales numbers were broadly on the better-than-expected side, indicating the improved outlook for the sector.

Thursday - 5/31

  • A very busy morning for economic releases, starting with the May jobs report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), the payroll processor. We will get the weekly Jobless Claims data, the second look at the first quarter GDP, and the Chicago PMI.
  • The ADP report will give us a flavor of what to expect in the Friday’s government jobs report. Last month, the ADP report disappointed by coming up with a 119K jobs number, which was followed up by a disappointing government jobs report of 115K jobs.
  • The GDP growth rate is expected to come down from the first round’s 2.2% to 1.9%, though the all-important personal consumers expenditures (or consumer spending) component will likely not see much revision.

Friday - 6/01

  • We have four major reports coming out today, though the focus will be on the May non-farm payroll report. Other major reports include the May manufacturing ISM survey, the April Construction Spending report, and the April Personal Income & Outlays report.
  • Despite the crowded economic calendar, the Jobs report will be the key driver of the day’s trading action. It appears that the disappointing reports in April and March have helped temper expectations a bit, as hardly anyone is looking for number of above 200K. The expectation is for ‘headline’ gains of about 165K, compared to the 115K gained in April. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.1%.  
  • The ISM report is expected to show a modest decline from April’s 54.8 level, while construction spending growth is expected to have increased in April from March’s growth pace.

Earnings Calendar

Company Ticker 1Q-12E 1Q-11A Last EPS Surprise % Report Day Time
ENERSYS INC ENS 0.95 0.75 14.29 Tuesday AMC
SANDERSON FARMS SAFM 0.86 -0.56 -427.27 Tuesday BTO
PERFECT WORLD PWRD 0.73 0.76 61.11 Tuesday AMC
SOC QUIMICA MIN SQM 0.52 0.42 1.69 Tuesday AMC
ITERIS INC ITI 0.01 0.01 0 Tuesday AMC
CORVEL CORP CRVL 0.7 0.69 -37.33 Wednesday BTO
JOS A BANK CLTH JOSB 0.62 0.64 -0.63 Wednesday BTO
RBC BEARINGS ROLL 0.62 0.47 8 Wednesday BTO
DOLLAR GENERAL DG 0.59 0.48 3.66 Wednesday BTO
COPART INC CPRT 0.43 0.35 22.41 Wednesday AMC
BOOZ ALLEN HMLT BAH 0.41 0.33 17.14 Wednesday BTO
FRESH MARKET TFM 0.35 0.28 -2.56 Wednesday BTO
ITURAN LOCATION ITRN 0.32 0.31 3.57 Wednesday BTO
LIONS GATE ETMT LGF 0.19 0.26 -111.11 Wednesday AMC
QAD INC-A QADA 0.17 0.06 N/A Wednesday AMC
COSAN LTD-A CZZ 0.13 N/A N/A Wednesday AMC
QAD INC QADB 0.11 0.06 15.38 Wednesday AMC
TILLYS INC TLYS 0.11 N/A N/A Wednesday AMC
TEAVANA HOLDING TEA 0.1 0.09 3.23 Wednesday BTO
MEDICAL ACTION MDCI 0.04 0.07 175 Wednesday BTO
TAOMEE HOLDINGS TAOM 0.04 0.21 -20 Wednesday AMC
DAKTRONICS INC DAKT 0.03 0.07 -42.86 Wednesday BTO
DRYSHIPS INC DRYS 0.02 0.16 -12.5 Wednesday AMC
NORTH AMER EGY NOA -0.12 0.29 -127.78 Wednesday AMC
SYSWIN INC-ADS SYSW -0.12 0.11 23.08 Wednesday AMC
TIVO INC TIVO -0.15 -0.29 8.7 Wednesday AMC
YINGLI GREEN EN YGE -0.19 0.36 79.45 Wednesday BTO
COLDWATER CREEK CWTR -0.2 -0.32 9.52 Wednesday AMC
NCI BLDG SYSTEM NCS -0.39 -0.48 53.62 Wednesday AMC
JOY GLOBAL INC JOY 1.95 1.52 -6.67 Thursday BTO
CDN IMPL BK CM 1.88 1.77 2.06 Thursday BTO
ESTERLINE TECHN ESL 1.3 1.47 19.67 Thursday AMC
PHILLIPS 66 PSX 0.9 N/A N/A Thursday BTO
JDA SOFTWARE GP JDAS 0.48 0.32 8.93 Thursday AMC
ASCENA RETAIL ASNA 0.36 0.33 20.9 Thursday AMC
SAIC INC SAI 0.33 0.36 -8.82 Thursday AMC
ISLE OF CAPRI ISLE 0.3 0.22 70 Thursday BTO
VERA BRADLEY VRA 0.29 0.28 6.38 Thursday AMC
MOVADO GRP INC MOV 0.25 0.02 51.16 Thursday BTO
CHARMING SHOPPE CHRS 0.18 0.17 -200 Thursday BTO
DESCARTES SYS DSGX 0.13 0.07 -15.38 Thursday BTO
OMNIVISION TECH OVTI 0.08 0.57 8 Thursday AMC
AMER ORIENT BIO AOB 0.03 0.02 60 Thursday AMC
STAR BULK CARRS SBLK -0.05 0.01 20 Thursday BTO
SABA SOFTWARE SABA -0.06 0.03 0 Thursday AMC
SPLUNK INC SPLK -0.07 N/A N/A Thursday AMC
REALD INC RLD -0.08 0.08 183.33 Thursday AMC
CIENA CORP CIEN -0.14 -0.33 -52.94 Thursday BTO
AMER SUPERCON AMSC -0.38 -0.58 17.02 Thursday BTO
JINKOSOLAR HLDG JKS -1.06 2.1 -366.07 Thursday BTO
THERMON GROUP THR 0.19 -0.12 21.05 Friday BTO
GRAHAM CORP GHM 0.1 0.27 5 Friday BTO
AMER WOODMARK AMWD -0.07 -0.18 34.62 Friday BTO

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