Billionaire John Paulson’s 2023 Portfolio: Top 15 Stock Picks
In this article, we discuss the top 15 stock picks from John Paulson's latest portfolio. You can skip our discussion on Paulson's economic outlook and go directly to Billionaire John Paulson's 2023 Portfolio: Top 5 Stock Picks.
John Paulson, a prominent American hedge fund manager, is most well-known for his successful investment strategy during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. He became widely recognized for his "big short" trade, where he correctly predicted and profited from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market through his $4 billion bet. His strategy involved identifying overvalued assets and taking positions that would benefit from their decline in value. Paulson & Co., the hedge fund firm founded by John Paulson in 1994, initially thrived as a niche fund before gaining significant attention when Paulson executed his big short position. At its peak, Paulson & Co. managed $36 billion in assets. However, by the end of 2018, the total had decreased to approximately $6 billion. In July 2020, Paulson made the decision to return capital to investors and transform his hedge fund into a family office.
Paulson's investment strategy has been characterized by a strong emphasis on conducting thorough research and analysis to identify promising investment opportunities. This approach involves an in-depth examination of financial statements, careful analysis of market trends, and consideration of macroeconomic factors. The hedge fund manager thinks that in the coming years, gold will see an upward trend in value while the US dollar experiences a decline. In an interview with journalist Alain Elkann in February, Paulson stated that there had been a noteworthy surge in demand from central banks seeking to replace dollars with gold, and he believes this trend is still in its early stages. Furthermore, contrary to market expectations of the Federal Reserve easing hikes in the second half of the year, Paulson stated that inflation would be more persistent than what is currently being perceived. According to him, it is probable that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by an additional 50, 75, or even 100 basis points in the next few meetings. Following these increases, the Fed is expected to maintain these rates until a significant economic shock occurs.
Besides his investment activities, Paulson has also shown a significant commitment to supporting educational institutions through donations. He donated $400 million to Harvard in 2015, the biggest endowment that the prestigious institution has ever received. Furthermore, in December 2022, New York University (NYU) also revealed that the institution had received a donation of $100 million from Paulson. However, it must be noted that the donation was made nearly a decade ago and was only made public after the John A. Paulson Center was ready to be opened at the university.
As of Q1 2023, Paulson & Co’s 13F portfolio is valued at over $1.2 billion. Some of the notable stocks in Paulson’s portfolio include Bausch Health Companies Inc. (NYSE:BHC), Horizon Therapeutics Public Limited Company (NASDAQ:HZNP), and NovaGold Resources Inc. (NYSE:NG).
John Paulson of Paulson & Co
Our Methodology
We picked the top 15 stocks from the Q1 2023 portfolio of John Paulson's Paulson & Co. These 15 stocks represent over 89% of Paulson & Co’s portfolio. The stocks have been ranked in ascending order of the hedge fund’s stake in them during Q1 2023. We have used Insider Monkey's database of 943 elite funds as of Q4 2022 to gauge the hedge fund sentiment concerning each stock.
Billionaire John Paulson's 2023 Portfolio: Top 15 Stock Picks
15. Equinox Gold Corp. (NYSE:EQX)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 13
John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Holdings: $12,875,000
Percentage of John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Portfolio: 1.07%
Equinox Gold Corp. (NYSE:EQX) is a Vancouver, Canada-based mining company founded in 2017. The company is focused on the exploration, development, and operation of gold mining properties. In a research note issued on May 4, Dalton Baretto at Canaccord assigned Equinox Gold Corp. (NYSE:EQX) stock a target price of $6.31 (C$8.50) along with a Buy rating. Equinox Gold Corp. (NYSE:EQX) posted its Q1 2023 results on May 3 and revealed that the company’s Greenstone gold project is 73% complete. The project is on its way to beginning production during the first half of 2024.
Here's what Massif Capital said about Equinox Gold Corp. (NYSE:EQX) in its Q1 2023 investor letter:
“Equinox Gold Corp. (NYSE:EQX) was our best-performing investment during the first quarter, returning 57%, outperforming the broader gold sector as measured by the GDX and GDXJ by more than 40% and outperforming gold by roughly 50%. The outperformance was not driven by fundamental factors at the company but rather by a combination of sector sentiment and a beta to the gold price of 3.1. We believe that fundamental factors, specifically the conclusion of construction and eventual ramp-up of the Greenstone mine during the first half of next year, represent potent catalysts for EQX, but this quarter’s appreciation was not fundamentally driven.
While we are pleased with the excellent performance during the first quarter, we would be remiss if we did not point out that the stock remains well below the high of roughly $13.50 achieved in 2020, a price at which we owned the stock. While we are in the black on the position despite a 62% fall from the stock peak, our failure to exit the position at that time remains a painful portfolio management misstep…” (Please click here to read the full text)
14. Bally's Corporation (NYSE:BALY)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 16
John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Holdings: $17,408,951
Percentage of John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Portfolio: 1.44%
Bally's Corporation (NYSE:BALY) is a Providence, Rhode Island-based company that operates and owns a diversified portfolio of gaming and entertainment assets. The company is involved in various aspects of the gaming industry, including land-based casinos, online gambling, and sports betting. Bally's Corporation (NYSE:BALY) has agreed with Oakland Athletics to construct a ballpark on the Las Vegas Strip on the current Tropicana property, which will close in the next 18 to 24 months to give way to the ballpark. The proposed ballpark, once completed, is expected to host 2.5 million fans and visitors annually.
Of the 943 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database as of Q4 2023, 16 funds held a stake in Bally's Corporation (NYSE:BALY).
13. Seabridge Gold Inc. (NYSE:SA)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 12
John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Holdings: $26,806,500
Percentage of John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Portfolio: 2.22%
Seabridge Gold Inc. (NYSE:SA) is a Toronto, Canada-based company with a primary objective of acquiring and advancing resource-rich, undeveloped gold projects with the potential for significant gold reserves. The company is known for its flagship project, the Kerr-Sulphurets-Mitchell (KSM) project, located in British Columbia, Canada. Seabridge Gold Inc. (NYSE:SA) revealed on May 11 that it has entered into a royalty deal with Sprott Resource Streaming. Under the agreement, one of the wholly-owned subsidiaries of Seabridge Gold Inc. (NYSE:SA) will receive $150 million in payment for a 1.5% net smelter royalty in the KSM project.
Here's what Old West Management said about Seabridge Gold Inc. (NYSE:SA) in its Q4 2022 investor letter:
“Seabridge Gold Inc. (NYSE:SA) was founded by current chairman and CEO Rudi Fronk in 1999. To say Seabridge is Fronk’s life work would be accurate. Fronk, who has two degrees in mining and minerals, is a top shareholder of the company. Seabridge owns the KSM project in northwestern British Colombia. KSM has proven and probable reserves of 47 million ounces of gold and 7 billion pounds of copper. Seabridge also owns attractive deposits in Nevada and Northwest territories of Canada, although much smaller than KSM. The average grade of KSM’s gold deposit is less than one gram per ton, but there is good accessibility to the site, and it is in the safe jurisdiction of mining friendly Canada.
Seabridge’s market cap is C $1.5 billion, they have no long term debt and C $200 million cash. They have been burning C $75 million of cash per year. The company is openly looking to partner with a major miner to develop their properties.”
12. SSR Mining Inc. (NASDAQ:SSRM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 16
John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Holdings: $30,240,000
Percentage of John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Portfolio: 2.51%
SSR Mining Inc. (NASDAQ:SSRM) is a Vancouver, Canada-based mining company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and operation of precious metal properties. The company has a diverse portfolio of assets located in various regions of the Americas. SSR Mining Inc. (NASDAQ:SSRM) stock was assigned a target price of $19.68 (C$26.50) along with a Buy rating in an update issued to investors on May 10 by Canaccord analyst Dalton Baretto. The company also recently revealed that it intends to acquire up to 40% stake in the Hod Maden gold-copper development project located in northeastern Turkiye.
Palm Valley Capital Management shared its stance on SSR Mining Inc. (NASDAQ:SSRM) in its Q3 2022 investor letter. Here’s what the firm said:
“We also purchased SSR Mining (NASDAQ:SSRM) during the quarter. SSR Mining is a precious metals mining company that we previously sold in November 2021 after it reached our valuation. SSR Mining’s stock has fallen significantly this year due to lower precious metal prices and the temporary closure of its Copler mine. We repurchased its shares in late September after the Copler mine restarted on schedule, since the stock remained depressed. SSR Mining should generate significant free cash flow at current gold and silver prices and has a very strong balance sheet with over $600 million in net cash and $4.1 billion in stockholders’ equity. While we expect the stock to remain volatile, we believe the company is selling at an attractive price relative to its asset-heavy balance sheet and our net asset valuation.”
11. Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE:AUY)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 33
John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Holdings: $33,938,775
Percentage of John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Portfolio: 2.82%
Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE:AUY) is a Toronto, Canada-based gold mining company that operates several mines in North and South America. The company is primarily focused on the exploration, development, and production of gold and other precious metals. The shares of Yamana Gold Inc. have been delisted from the New York Stock Exchange since April 3 following the acquisition of the company by Pan American Silver Corp (NYSE:PAAS). In return, the shareholders of Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE:AUY) have received a sum of $1.0406 per share in cash, along with 0.0376 shares of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM). Yamana Gold Inc.’s (NYSE:AUY) shareholders will hold a 42% stake in Pan American Silver in exchange for their shares.
10. International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. (NYSE:THM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 5
John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Holdings: $37,116,644
Percentage of John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Portfolio: 3.08%
International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. (NYSE:THM) is a Vancouver, Canada-based mining company focused on the exploration and development of mineral projects, with a particular emphasis on gold properties. The company's primary asset is the Livengood Gold Project, located in Alaska, US. The project is anticipated to produce roughly 294,100 ounces of gold through a prospective life of 23 years.
Paulson & Co was the leading hedge fund investor in International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. (NYSE:THM), with over 61.9 million shares during Q1 2023.
9. Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 41
John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Holdings: $39,938,104
Percentage of John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Portfolio: 3.32%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM) is a Toronto, Canada-based gold mining company with a presence in Canada, Finland, and Mexico. The company has been involved in the exploration, development, and production of gold for several decades. Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM) already owned a 50% stake in the Canadian Malartic mine and completed the takeover of the remaining 50% stake held by Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE:AUY) during Q1 2023. The company forecasts 40,000 tons per day of excess mill capacity at the Malartic in the next five years.
Here's what Old West Management said about Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM) in its Q4 2022 investor letter:
“Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM) is the third largest gold miner in the world with mines in Canada, Australia, Finland, and Mexico. Although we have long respected the company, we became shareholders when they acquired our portfolio holding, Kirkland Lake Gold. Agnico chairman Sean Boyd is one of the most respected executives in the mining industry. He was appointed CEO in 1998 and was recently appointed Executive Chairman. Boyd is a large shareholder and perfectly fits our owner/manager role. This year the company is projected to make nearly $1 billion in net income on $5.8 billion in revenue with $758 million of free cash flow. Net income has been growing 15% per year for several years. Agnico has a fortress balance sheet with $1.3 billion of long term debt, which is only 2 times EBITDA, and $820 million cash in the bank. The stock trades at $55 per share, which is 26 times earnings with a 2.9% dividend yield.”
8. Thryv Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:THRY)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 18
John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Holdings: $46,120,000
Percentage of John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Portfolio: 3.83%
Thryv Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:THRY) is a Grapevine, Texas-based company that provides software and digital marketing solutions to 50,000 small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) across the US, Canada, and Australia. Formerly known as DexYP, Thryv Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:THRY) offers a comprehensive suite of tools and services designed to help SMBs manage their operations, engage with customers, and enhance their online presence. Paulson & Co. initiated a stake in Thryv Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:THRY) during Q4 2020 with approximately 3.2 million shares.
Here's what Liberty Park Capital Management said about Thryv Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:THRY) in its Q1 2023 investor letter:
“We are pleased that Liberty Park Fund, LP has gotten off to a strong start in 2023. January was a particularly strong month for both of our funds, and LPF was able to use the market’s strength to install several new short positions; those positions greatly helped the portfolio in February and March as the market receded.
Thryv Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:THRY) reported a better-than-expected fourth quarter in which its marketing services segment grew (vs. a forecasted decline of ~20% a year). Despite the better-than-expected results for marketing services, we expect the revenue contribution from the company’s SAAS segment to surpass revenues from marketing services this year. We expect this change in mix to cause a significant reweighting in the price of THRY shares.”
7. Shaw Communications Inc (NYSE:SJR)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 34
John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Holdings: $49,371,078
Percentage of John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Portfolio: 4.1%
Shaw Communications Inc is a Calgary, Alberta-based telecommunications company that provides a range of services, including internet, television, and phone services, to residential and business customers. The shares of one of the biggest telecommunications providers in Canada are now delisted from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) following the completion of its multi-billion takeover by Rogers Corporation (NYSE:ROG) in April 2023. The deal was initially proposed in 2021, but the regulatory approval by the Canadian government finished in late March 2023.
6. AngloGold Ashanti Limited (NYSE:AU)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 16
John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Holdings: $92,732,171
Percentage of John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.’s Portfolio: 7.7%
AngloGold Ashanti Limited (NYSE:AU) is a Johannesburg, South Africa-based gold mining company with a significant presence in Africa, the Americas, and Australasia. On May 12, AngloGold Ashanti Limited (NYSE:AU) announced that it intends to delist its shares from the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and make the NYSE its primary listing location due to weak trading frequency volume on the ASX. Furthermore, AngloGold Ashanti Limited (NYSE:AU) is also focused on moving its current global headquarters to London, UK. The shifting of primary listing to the US is expected to unlock better access to capital and liquidity for the company.
Besides AngloGold Ashanti Limited (NYSE:AU), some of the notable stocks in Paulson’s portfolio include Bausch Health Companies Inc. (NYSE:BHC), Horizon Therapeutics Public Limited Company (NASDAQ:HZNP), and NovaGold Resources Inc. (NYSE:NG) as of Q1 2023.
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Disclosure: None. Billionaire John Paulson's 2023 Portfolio: Top 15 Stock Picks is originally published on Insider Monkey.
