Even with the dramatic stock market surge so far in 2019, the market may have some more room to run.
That’s the assessment from billionaire investor Ken Fisher, founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments.
“Third years of a presidential terms are positive,” he said, referencing 2019, which is President Trump’s third year in office. “If you go back to the beginning of the S&P 500 (^GSPC), the consistency of that is just stunning.”
The rationale here is that political gridlock increases during a president’s third year in office, which comes after a midterm election.
“Political risk aversion falls as you get to increase gridlock, which happens in every midterm election,” he said. “And it surprises people that suddenly legislation doesn't go through.”
Political gridlock tends to be welcomed by investors as policy changes could spark market volatility.
Fisher sees a market that likely continues to rise with volatility, but the growth slows in the latter half of the year as increased uncertainty comes about as investors start to price in the next presidential race.
The S&P 500 is up an impressive 16% year-to-date.
But, as the primary season in 2020 starts to narrow down possible future presidential candidates, the uncertainty fades, which likely leads to a re-acceleration of the market in the back half of 2020, according to Fisher.
In terms of opportunities within the market, Fisher points to opportunities in Western Europe.
“I think you want to be heavily weighted now to Western Europe because sentiment about Western Europe is just dismal as dirt,” he said. “And loan growth in Europe is continuing at a pretty good rate despite — and loan growth is an indicator of future business activity.”
Scott Gamm is a reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @ScottGamm.
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