It's been a good week for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:BCRX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 6.8% to US$4.08. Revenues of US$6.1m crushed expectations, although expenses understandably increased with statutory losses reaching US$0.26 per share, somewhat higher than what the analysts forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the nine analysts covering BioCryst Pharmaceuticals are now predicting revenues of US$57.1m in 2021. If met, this would reflect a modest 6.7% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$0.83 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$57.5m and US$0.86 per share in losses. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for next year.
The average price target held steady at US$8.31, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$13.00 and the most bearish at US$4.50 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.7% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.4%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 20% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple BioCryst Pharmaceuticals analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - BioCryst Pharmaceuticals has 2 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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