Biogen Idec. (BIIB) is scheduled to report second quarter 2013 earnings before the opening bell on Jul 25, 2013. We expect the company to beat expectations in the second quarter.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model shows that Biogen is likely to beat earnings because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.
Positive Zacks ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction): This is because the Most Accurate Estimate stands at $1.87 while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is lower at $1.83 per share. This results in a difference of +2.19%.
Zacks Rank #3 (Hold): Note that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1, 2 and 3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings estimates. We caution against stocks with Zacks Ranks #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
The combination of Biogen’s Zacks Rank #3 and an ESP of +2.19% makes us confident of an earnings beat on Jul 25.
What is Driving the Better-than-Expected Earnings?
Biogen is a biotechnology company focused on neurology, immunology and hemophilia. Biogen’s strong foothold in the multiple sclerosis (MS) market will drive earnings in this quarter. MS products include Avonex, Tysabri and an oral MS drug, Tecfidera. Tecfidera – the third oral MS product to reach the market – has the potential to become a leader.
Avonex is Biogen’s lead MS product. Biogen has been working on driving Avonex revenues. The company launched Avonex Pen in the US last year. Avonex Pen helps in convenient administration. The rollout of Avonex Pen in the EU and US should increase patient and physician interest in the drug.
Tysabri is launched in new markets like India, Brazil, Argentina, the Middle East and Southeast Asia among others, which should drive growth.
Other Stocks to Consider
Biogen is not the only company looking up this earnings season. We also see likely earnings beat coming from these companies:
Actavis, Inc. (ACT) has Earnings ESP of +1.51% and holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Actavis will be reporting second quarter earnings on Jul 25 before the market opens.
Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MNTA) has Earnings ESP of +2.13% and holds a Zacks Rank #2. Momenta will be reporting second quarter earnings on Aug 1 before the market opens.
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA) has Earnings ESP of +0.85% and holds a Zacks Rank #3. Teva will be reporting second quarter earnings on Aug 1.
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