In this article I am going to calculate the intrinsic value of Bitauto Holdings Limited (NYSE:BITA) using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. Also note that this article was written in April 2018 so be sure check the latest calculation for Bitauto Holdings here.
Crunching the numbers
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. Firstly, I took the analyst consensus forecast of BITA’s levered free cash flow (FCF) over the next five years and discounted these figures at the cost of equity of 17.53%. When estimates weren’t available, I’ve extrapolated the average annual growth rate over the previous five years, capped at a reasonable level. This resulted in a present value of 5-year cash flow of CN¥9.14B. Want to know how I arrived at this number? Read our detailed analysis here.
The graph above shows how BITA’s earnings are expected to move going forward, which should give you some color on BITA’s outlook. Next, I calculate the terminal value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after the five years. I think it’s suitable to use the 10-year government bond rate of 2.8% as the stable growth rate, which is rightly below GDP growth, but more towards the conservative side. After discounting the terminal value back five years, the present value becomes CN¥6.88B.
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥16.02B. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value of $36.53, which, compared to the current share price of $19.76, we see that Bitauto Holdings is quite good value at a 45.91% discount to what it is available for right now.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For BITA, there are three key aspects you should further research:
- Financial Health: Does BITA have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does BITA’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of BITA? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NYSE every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.