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Bitcoin: Is a Bear Market Imminent? How Low Could BTC Fall?

By David Wagner

Investing.com — As a Bitcoin ETF in the United States will finally become a reality this week, some believe that Bitcoin will soon set new records, while others predict that investors will "sell the fact" after having "bought the rumor."

Indeed, it would not be the first time that Bitcoin has risen in anticipation of a major event, only to start falling as soon as that event becomes a reality. This was the case with the launch of CME Bitcoin futures in 2017, and more recently, with the Coinbase (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:COIN) IPO earlier this year.

So the question for cautious investors is how much Bitcoin could correct if history repeats itself.

Bitcoin is expected to post a less severe correction this time

In this regard, we can note recent very relevant comments from the fund Pantera Capital, via its CEO Dan Morehead, in a report published earlier this month.

In particular, he recalled that during the first two major correction phases of Bitcoin in 2013-15 and 2017-18, bitcoin plunged by more than 80% after new highs.

However, he also pointed out that the corrections following the 2019-20 and 2020-2021 highs were much less severe, by -61% and -54%, respectively.

Therefore, we can expect that if Bitcoin enters a bear market following the launch of a Bitcoin ETF in the U.S., the losses will likely not exceed 50%. That would, however, bring the digital coin back close to $30,000.

"I have long advocated that as the market becomes larger, more valuable, and more institutional, the magnitude of price fluctuations will moderate," he explained to justify Bitcoins increasingly shallow bear markets.

Bitcoin rallies will be less and less massive as well

However, Morehead pointed out that the flip side of the coin is that the cryptocurrency's bullish rallies will also be smaller and smaller, pointing out that the bullish impact of the various halves that have taken place over Bitcoin's history have resulted in smaller and smaller rallies.

According to him, the first halving of Bitcoin led to a 9212% rise in the cryptocurrency, while the second resulted in a 2910% rise. The third, which took place last year in May 2020, has so far resulted in a rally of "only" 720%.

Halving reduces the reward for Bitcoin miners by about half every four years, which is equivalent to a reduction in supply, with a mechanically bullish impact on the Bitcoin price.

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