- BTC/USD fell back down after rising gradually.
- Interest from Russia and the upcoming launch of Bakkt provide hope.
- The charts show that Bitcoin is balanced. The experts poll shows a bullish short-term trend and a drop afterward.
The grandaddy of cryptocurrencies climbed up gently and dropped back to the bottom of the apparent range. However, it refrained from diving back to the pre-holiday season lows.
Here are three reasons why it can rise?
Constantinople is coming
The second cryptocurrency, Etehreum, led the rise, and then sent it down. Constantinople, the upcoming consensual hard fork, is a significant upgrade to Vitalik Buterin's brainchild and it is due on January 16th. Ether is set to remain the leader while other digital coins, including the largest one, are following.
Will Constantinople send cryptos climbing? If not, there are other positive factors. Institutional interest remains a critical factor. While the US SEC may take its time, Japanese authorities are looking into approving an Exchange Traded Fund for Bitcoin. The land of Satoshi Nakamoto, whether the person exists or not, is advanced in the regulation of the blockchain technology. Coincheck, a prominent exchange, is seeking registration as a crypto-exchange.
Russia rides to the rescue
Another source of support comes from Russia. One way to circumvent sanctions is investing in cryptocurrencies. Moscow is mulling diversifying its vast amount of foreign exchange reserves into cryptos, with a potential $10 billion going into them.
Watch the developments on all three fronts.
All in all, there are reasons to be cheerful.
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BTC/USD Technical Analysis
BTC/USD is trading in a clear range. The double bottom of $3,555 that was visited in late December and now is the bottom line. The top is $4,100 which was the peak of the recent rise.
Momentum is to the downside and Bitcoin lost the 50-day Simple Moving Average just after crossing it. The indicator stands just under $3,800 and serves as initial resistance. $3,950 was a stubborn resistance line around Christmas. Those above $4,100 level is next. $4,220 was a swing high just before the holidays. $4,400 capped the cryptocurrency in late November.
Below $3,555 we find close support at $3,490 which had the same role in late November. Significantly lower, we find $3,210 that was a swing low in mid-December. The cycle low of $3,120. It is the last defense before $3,000.
The Forecast Poll of experts shows a short-term bullish bias but bearish biases in the medium and long terms.
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