One of the biggest stories of last week was how Blue Apron Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:APRN) shares plunged 39% in the week since its latest first-quarter results, closing yesterday at US$6.71. The results weren't stellar - revenue fell 5.2% short of analyst estimates at US$102m, although statutory losses were a relative bright spot. The per-share loss was US$1.51, 13% smaller than the analysts were expecting prior to the result. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Blue Apron Holdings after the latest results.
Following the latest results, Blue Apron Holdings' two analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$441.6m in 2020. This would be a credible 6.5% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 49% to US$2.95. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$436.5m and losses of US$3.52 per share in 2020. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Blue Apron Holdings'future looks a little different to the past, with a the loss per share forecasts in particular.
These new estimates led to the consensus price target rising 73% to US$9.50, with lower forecast losses suggesting things could be looking up for Blue Apron Holdings.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Blue Apron Holdings is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to grow 6.5%. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 26% annual decline over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 16% per year. So although Blue Apron Holdings' revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Blue Apron Holdings' revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2024, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 5 warning signs for Blue Apron Holdings (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.
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