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Blueprint Medicines Corporation (NASDAQ:BPMC) Just Beat EPS By 19%: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

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Blueprint Medicines Corporation (NASDAQ:BPMC) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Blueprint Medicines delivered a significant beat to revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, with sales hitting US$745m and statutory EPS reaching US$11.16, both beating estimates by more than 10%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Blueprint Medicines


Taking into account the latest results, the 14 analysts covering Blueprint Medicines provided consensus estimates of US$176.0m revenue in 2021, which would reflect a painful 78% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of US$6.12 in 2021, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$172.0m and losses of US$7.08 per share in 2021. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Blueprint Medicines' future following the latest consensus numbers, with a the loss per share forecasts in particular.

The consensus price target rose 9.0% to US$113, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Blueprint Medicines at US$150 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$81.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast revenue decline of 78%, a significant reduction from annual growth of 70% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 21% next year. It's pretty clear that Blueprint Medicines' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though sales are expected to grow slower than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Blueprint Medicines analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Blueprint Medicines that we have uncovered.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.