BMC (BMCH) Hits 52-Week High, Can the Run Continue?
Shares of BMC Stock Holdings (BMCH) have been strong performers lately, with the stock up 61% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $42.33 in the previous session. BMC Stock Holdings has gained 43.8% since the start of the year compared to the 37.6% move for the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and the 33.6% return for the Zacks Building Products - Retail industry.
What's Driving the Outperformance?
The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on August 3, 2020, BMC reported EPS of $0.73 versus consensus estimate of $0.34 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 6.51%.
For the current fiscal year, BMC is expected to post earnings of $2.06 per share on $3.92 billion in revenues. This represents an 8.42% change in EPS on an 8.2% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $2.39 per share on $4.12 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 16.18% and 5.11%, respectively.
Valuation Metrics
BMC may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company is due for a pullback from this level.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
BMC has a Value Score of B. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and B, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 20.1X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 14.3X versus its peer group's average of 12X. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.
Zacks Rank
We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, BMC currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if BMC passes the test. Thus, it seems as though BMC shares could have a bit more room to run in the near term.
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