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It's been a sad week for Boise Cascade Company (NYSE:BCC), who've watched their investment drop 11% to US$46.34 in the week since the company reported its annual result. It was not a great result overall. Although revenues beat expectations, hitting US$5.5b, statutory earnings missed analyst forecasts by 11%, coming in at just US$4.44 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the consensus from Boise Cascade's four analysts is for revenues of US$5.27b in 2021, which would reflect a perceptible 3.8% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 16% to US$3.74 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.27b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.74 in 2021. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$52.00, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Boise Cascade, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$54.00 and the most bearish at US$47.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with the forecast 3.8% revenue decline a notable change from historical growth of 6.8% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.9% next year. It's pretty clear that Boise Cascade's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Boise Cascade's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$52.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Boise Cascade going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Boise Cascade (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to take into consideration.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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