Bonds get a break: What to watch for in real estate this week
Realist Real Estate Roundup, November 4–8 (Part 6 of 7)
After a tumultuous couple of weeks, bonds get a break
This week is a short week with the bond market closed for Veteran’s Day. The stock market will still be open, however. It’s not a heavy week data-wise or earnings-wise.
Economic data this week
Monday, November 11
Veteran’s Day—Bonds closed, stocks open
Tuesday, November 12
NFIB Small Business Optimism
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Wednesday, November 13
MBA Mortgage Applications
Monthly budget statement
Thursday, November 14
Initial jobless claims
Nonfarm productivity
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Unit labor costs
Trade balance
Bloomberg November United States Economic Survey
Friday, November 15
Import prices
Empire Manufacturing
Industrial production
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing production
Wholesale inventories
Wholesale trade sales
Earnings reports this week
Tuesday, November 12
D.R. Horton (DHI)
Springleaf Holdings (LEAF)
Wednesday, November 13
TriPointe Homes (TPH)
Impact on mortgage REITs
Mortgage REITs like Annaly (NLY), American Capital Agency (AGNC), and MFA Financial (MFA) are highly interest rate–sensitive. None of the economic releases will be market-moving (or at least none should be). For the REITs, next week will be all about whether Friday’s move in bonds is real or not. (Check out Part 7, where I discuss this issue.)
Impact on homebuilders
Homebuilders like Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH) are heading into a seasonally weak period, so they’re in inventory reduction mode. We do hear from D.R. Horton (DHI) and Tri Pointe (TPH) next week, so that should bring some good data points. The builders will probably focus most closely on the industrial production and capacity utilization numbers, since these are leading indicators for manufacturing employment and jobs are a key driver for the builders at the moment.
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