It's been a mediocre week for Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BOOT) shareholders, with the stock dropping 15% to US$35.72 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$284m were in line with what analysts predicted, Boot Barn Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.85 per share, modestly greater than expected. Analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what analysts' statutory forecasts suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Boot Barn Holdings from twelve analysts is for revenues of US$970.0m in 2021, which is a decent 14% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to grow 19% to US$2.12. Yet prior to the latest earnings, analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$971.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.13 in 2021. So it's pretty clear that, although analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$47.58. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Boot Barn Holdings at US$55.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$38.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way to assess these estimates is by comparing them to past performance, and seeing whether analysts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the market. We can infer from the latest estimates that analysts are expecting a continuation of Boot Barn Holdings's historical trends, as next year's forecast 14% revenue growth is roughly in line with 14% annual revenue growth over the past five years. Compare this with the wider market, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.7% next year. So it's pretty clear that Boot Barn Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its market.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion from these results is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data does suggest that Boot Barn Holdings's revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider market. The consensus price target held steady at US$47.58, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on analysts' estimated valuations.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Boot Barn Holdings going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see whether Boot Barn Holdings is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
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