Boxed, Inc. (NYSE:BOXD) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know
It's shaping up to be a tough period for Boxed, Inc. (NYSE:BOXD), which a week ago released some disappointing second-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It definitely looks like a negative result overall with revenues falling 13% short of analyst estimates at US$44m. Statutory losses were US$0.47 per share, 25% bigger than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for Boxed
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Boxed from four analysts is for revenues of US$199.7m in 2022 which, if met, would be a solid 8.3% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are predicted to creep up to US$1.69. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$226.2m and US$1.63 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.
The average price target fell 32% to US$7.00, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Boxed's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Boxed at US$12.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$6.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Boxed's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 17% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 10% per annum over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Boxed is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although industry data suggests that Boxed's revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Boxed going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Boxed (at least 3 which are a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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