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Brexit and Private Sector PMIs Put the GBP, EUR and USD in Focus

Bob Mason

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.

October’s prelim private sector PMI numbers out of Japan were in focus in the early part of the session.

For the Japanese Yen

The manufacturing PMI slipped from 48.9 to 48.5 in October, with the Service PMI falling from 52.8 to 50.3. According to the October Markit Survey,

  • New orders across the manufacturing sector saw a stronger rate of decline, while the service sector saw stronger growth.
  • New export orders, however, saw a slower pace of decline in the manufacturing sector, while service companies reported weaker growth.
  • Output in the manufacturing sector saw a stronger decline, with the service sector seeing weaker output growth.
  • While the consumption tax, which took effect in October, was attributed to the softer numbers, there was also the effect of typhoons to consider.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥108.615 to ¥108.610 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.06% to ¥108.62 against the U.S Dollar

Elsewhere

At the time of writing the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.06% to $0.6857, while the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.02% to $0.6422.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. October prelim PMI numbers are due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

We expect Germany’s manufacturing PMI and the Eurozone’s composite to have the greatest influence on the day.

Later in the session, U.S durable goods orders and prelim private sector PMIs will also influence. Expect any further slowdown in service sector growth to test the EUR.

On the monetary policy front, the ECB is also in action as Draghi delivers his last press conference as ECB President.

There’s also geopolitics to consider on the day. Brexit and any chatter on trade will need considering on the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.08% to $1.1139.

For the Pound

It’s yet another quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

A lack of stats leaves the Pound in the hands of the UK Parliament through the latter part of the day. There’s also the small issue of the Brexit extension to consider. Will all member states approve an extension to 31st January 2020 or will there be resistance?

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.09% to $1.2924.

Across the Pond

It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar. September durable goods orders and October prelim private sector PMIs are due out this afternoon.

Later in the session, new home sales figures for September are also due out.

We can expect core durable goods orders and the service sector PMI to have the greatest impact on the day.

The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.07% to 97.425 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk appetite and the influence of corporate earnings on the day.

The Loonie was down by 0.02% at C$1.3075, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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