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Brian's Friday recap: Consolidation as we look to next week

Brian Shepard

Collective Intelligence!
The Day Trading Maestro Top Notch aka Tim Haefke @FuturesTNT - A MrTopStep Webinar Saturday, April 27th http://bit.ly/17Oldhp limited seating.
Top Notch (07:15a.m. CT) 30 year bond- 148.07 pivotal. Tightly traded the last three sessions which saw one of the smallest ranges for the day trade I've seen in awhile. resistance @148.20, 149.06, and 149.23. support @ 147.27 and 147.12.

Traders will be carefully watching the GDP that will be released at 8:30. Economists say it’s likely to have gained 3%, but they go on to say it is important to look for signs of a slowing economy. However, some are already denouncing the figures as a one off anomaly. The economy is puttering along at 2% now and still cannot gain escape velocity. Despite a rise in the Fed’s balance sheet, the velocity of money has stayed depressed. Inflation remains in check - posted by Stanton Analytics at (06:50). Note: with syria the focus on the weekend with respect to chemical weapons hard to see crude weaken a lot.

Well, the heart of earnings season is behind us and so far the earnings have been mediocre. The slowly chugging economy has regressed over the past 2 months when compared to January and February. Payroll taxes?

RogerVolz (07:06CT) chart question I ask myself is whether inside days ES/NQ morph into bull pennants?

Harmonics from Kathy at http://structuraltrading.com/: SPY http://screencast.com/t/lD395H5U Kathy (09:29CT) ES completed Bullish Gartley, retraced enough to create a new harmonic rotation, now looking at emerging Butterfly, a b/d 1574.5 is important for that scenario to play out, tgt is 1566 w/ scaling pt 1570.75 Premkt chart: http://screencast.com/t/GuyNiEf9gsq , current chart: http://screencast.com/t/NjzKXZX7 Kathy (09:46CT) NQ closed below pitchfork & attempting to hold below it, that puts the Bat PRZ tgt 2818.5 higher probability NQ premkt chart http://screencast.com/t/P7xGbX1yDR5j current NQ chart: http://screencast.com/t/HV8TGVp8Yxuw

Posted here Thursday w/ today's updates:
We weeble, but we don’t stay down as we head into T+3 month end window dressing. I’m confused, is this the bulls or the bears? twitpic.com/clv6hq
Posted here Thursday morning by Sam Easley at (07:44a.m. CT): my book on es pretty simple see 1585.75-1587 and will short big. I see this as an extended abc up that takes us in the perfect world to 1587 and there she will roll. Sam Easley update: Friday (07:07a.m. CT) will cover my es short at 1572.75 a little pop there unless it extends to 1570 but I will cover at the first target. IM PRO member Sam Easley making the pre-market roll call on $ES_F yesterday http://t.co/OD8xo0njds 1587. Sam Easley (11:03) long es. Sam Easley (13:15) covered es done flat. Sam Easley (12:08) if your short copper cover and reverse 31425

Important shift in mentality "An increasing amount of officials in Europe are speaking out against austerity (Rehn said the pace of austerity was slowing while new Italian PM Letta urged Europe to focus more on growth.)" Also, Central Banks Load Up on Equities as Low Rates Kill Bond Yields http://bloom.bg/17jAxUQ Update: Norwegian Oil Fund Gains $37 Billion as Stock Markets Rally http://bloom.bg/17lZCOX

Chatter – been around for a long time and not going away… long term outlook, the dollar losing its world status… just Google "plans to bypass the dollar."

Monday’s S&P 500 trade started with 247k ESM and 1.6k SPM traded on Globex, trading range was 1574.80 – 1582.20. Thursday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1588.00 – 1576.70 before settling at 1581.70 up 7.6 handles. GDP checked in at 2.5% vs exp 3.0% setting an early cap on the already soft global equities overseas and the overall disappointing U.S. corporate earnings in the premarket pushing traders to the safe haven bonds. John Monaco (08:26CT) 70% SELL SIDE ON THE OPENING IMBALANCE.

The regular trading hours opening range was 1578.50 – 1579.30 - the s&p opened at the exact same prices as yesterdays session. 1578.50-1579.30 iceChat (08:33)
locals selling 1580 area (08:42) locals covering some shorts 1577.50 area. redliontrader (08:52:16): [RUT] A/D -2;38:1, [NYSE] A/D -1.45: 1, [DJIA] 1:1. At 8:55 Michigan sentiment checked at 76.4 vs exp of 73.2 - inflation expectations 3.1%. redliontrader (09:09) DOW A/D 1.42:1 RUT -2.6:1 - May rotation underway? sell risk and walk away. After trading a high of 1580.50 area the SPM, big S&P traded in the pit, began to slowly and quietly fade back throughout the morning. redliontrader (10:45CT) RUT trading new lows along with the spoos and [TLT] making new highs. The SPM traded an intraday low of 1573.00 before stepping sideways to quietly higher in the afternoon. Anthony (13:51:49): 10 minutes until the Treasury pit close 10 year Treasuries looking to close at the lowest yield of the year. Roger S (14:08) [AAPL] +$10, +2.5% post-earnings high. Ready to break the downtrend? Also, the Nasdaq (read AAPL) and the transports [DJT] rallied to new intraday highs. The 1580 area was trading when the closing imbalance showed a small $136M to the buy side. On the cash close the SPM future traded 1578 area before settling at 1576.50, down 5.2 handles on the futures close. Another consolidation day while eyeing next week’s busy schedule - official April PMIs, Fed decision, ECB meeting and US jobs data, to name a few.

Brian Shepard is a 20-year exchange member of the CME Group.

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