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Brian's Monday recap: 'These are MrTopStep markets at the moment'

Collective Intelligence!

The risk markets are preparing for the Fed meeting this week. Expectations are the Fed Chairman will assuage fears of tapering bond purchases. It is likely he will stay the course on policy for now until data presents itself to the contrary. Our lead chart for Monday’s technical report showed the Fed’s money supply has not yet begun to shrink. There are no signs of tapering the buy program.

Morgan Stanley released an oil outlook Monday. They expect increasing demand for the second half of the year. Oil prices are higher as a result of relieved fears of stimulus removal. The G-8 are meeting this week in Ireland. President Obama and Putin get to discuss their differing opinions on Syria. So too will the internet surveillance be a back door topic. The organization is likely to say that countries are not satisfied with progress made in fixing their economies. It will praise Japan for their aggressive approach to eliminating 20 years of stagnation. Also, Iran elected a moderate to bring change to the beleaguered nation. Hassan Rohani won the key role. The populace looks for better relations abroad. Rohani was a chief negotiator on their nuclear ambitions posted by Stanton_Analytics.

Michael_Wright (06/16/13 - 17:36PM) Taking a EURUSD short here at 1.3345, with 1.3385 stops. Target is 1.310. http://www.globalfxclub.com/disclaimer 4hr setup http://screencast.com/t/naQmHIlz

Posted here by Carley Garner Wednesday: Our models are calling for a buy down here in the ESM 1611/12 area, but 1608 is possible so any longs should be willing to ride it a little lower if it happens. On Thursday Carley Garner posted: We are looking for a swift bounce in the dollar index. We are recommending our clients buy September futures and then buy July 81 puts. The risk is limited to about $700 and has theoretically unlimited profit potential. We think a run to 83 could be in the cards. http://twitpic.com/cwzbwu

Kathy (http://structuraltrading.com) (08:12) ES has globex profile shaped like a P, this is indicative of a short covering rally, no edge as long as price hovers around 1631.75, conservative approach is to wait for a close & hold either above 1635.25 or below 1628.25

Kathy (08:27) CL chart shows new harmonic rotations forming w/ 98.74 being line in sand, above 98.35 has long oppty to 98.74, above there has dbl bearish ABCD tgt 99.22, a b/d 97.9 has 97.67 tgt, below there has extended tgt 96.54 which helps price reach 97 region, updated CL chart http://screencast.com/t/O8VO97LDrDs8

Kathy (14:49) DX daily perspective shows failure to bounce into around 82.232 has 79.85 region for important target http://screencast.com/t/XXRInuv24SR

One of NY’s finest researchers has joined Twitter. MrTopStep gives a big thumbs up to http://twitter.com/RVchartchatter

Today started with 350k ESU and 1.1k SPU traded on Globex, trading range was 1634.80 – 1618.00. Friday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1617.00 – 1634.70 before settling at 1618.40, down 12.5 handles. The economic calendar was light, but the Empire State manufacturing and the housing index, NAHB checked in firmer than expectations, lending early support.

On the regular trading hours open the SPU gapped 13 handles higher to 1631.20-1632.20, marking the morning low. The 1636 area traded at 8:36 and briefly stalled before the 9:00 NAHB data checked in at 52 vs exp 45. By 10:11 had stepped up to double top at 1640.70 which was shy of last week’s Monday morning high of 1642.50. Traders cited short covering and mid-month money being put to work in front of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and the coming expiration as supporting factors. By 1:08 the SPU was converting the 1636 area and by 1:25 had sliced through the opening range, trading down to 1630 and on to 1624. The weakness was attributed to (13:10) Ben Bernanke is likely to signal that the US Federal Reserve is close to tapering down its $85bn-a-month in asset purchases when he holds a press conference on Wednesday, but balance that by saying subsequent moves depend on what happens to the economy. FT

Jimmy_Ticks (13:39) headline nervousness is good for traders and not so for asset managers/investors - who wants to put $$$ to work in a headline minefield. These are MrTopStep markets at the moment, two-way trade not so great for investors and option guys - unless you're selling OTM covered options. (13:42) DJT new lows and more from Jimmy_Ticks (13:49) Two months ago the market ignored every headline you threw at it.... now it's listening - in both directions. My money would be on these kind of headline conditions lasting until the Fed Sept meeting. redliontrader (13:46) early (closing) imbalance data stacking to the buy side. iceChat (14:13) still wavering here as we head into the close. redliontrader (14:19) imbalance meter moved to the sell side. Going into the closing imbalance 1633 area was trading and the MOC closing imbalance showed a moderate $480mil to the sell side. 1632.50 area traded on the cash close before settling at 1633.70, up 15.3 handles on the day.

Brian Shepard is a 20-year exchange member of the CME Group.

_____________________________________________________

YOU WANT A LOOK AT WHAT OUR TRADERS SEE EVERY DAY? SIGN UP FOR THE IM TRIAL AT http://mrtopstep.com/free/ IT’S THE REAL DEAL!

_____________________________________________________

Follow us on Twitter @MrTopStep http://twitter.com/mrtopstep

Sign up for our free mailing list at http://mrtopstep.com/ for full report.

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the above report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities.

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Collective Intelligence!

The risk markets are preparing for the Fed meeting this week. Expectations are the Fed Chairman will assuage fears of tapering bond purchases. It is likely he will stay the course on policy for now until data presents itself to the contrary. Our lead chart for Monday’s technical report showed the Fed’s money supply has not yet begun to shrink. There are no signs of tapering the buy program.


Morgan Stanley released an oil outlook Monday. They expect increasing demand for the second half of the year. Oil prices are higher as a result of relieved fears of stimulus removal. The G-8 are meeting this week in Ireland. President Obama and Putin get to discuss their differing opinions on Syria. So too will the internet surveillance be a back door topic. The organization is likely to say that countries are not satisfied with progress made in fixing their economies. It will praise Japan for their aggressive approach to eliminating 20 years of stagnation. Also, Iran elected a moderate to bring change to the beleaguered nation. Hassan Rohani won the key role. The populace looks for better relations abroad. Rohani was a chief negotiator on their nuclear ambitions posted by Stanton_Analytics.

Michael_Wright (06/16/13 - 17:36PM) Taking a EURUSD short here at 1.3345, with 1.3385 stops. Target is 1.310. http://www.globalfxclub.com/disclaimer 4hr setup http://screencast.com/t/naQmHIlz



Posted here by Carley Garner Wednesday: Our models are calling for a buy down here in the ESM 1611/12 area, but 1608 is possible so any longs should be willing to ride it a little lower if it happens. On Thursday Carley Garner posted: We are looking for a swift bounce in the dollar index. We are recommending our clients buy September futures and then buy July 81 puts. The risk is limited to about $700 and has theoretically unlimited profit potential. We think a run to 83 could be in the cards. http://twitpic.com/cwzbwu


Kathy ( http://structuraltrading.com ) Kathy (08:12) ES has globex profile shaped like a P, this is indicative of a short covering rally, no edge as long as price hovers around 1631.75, conservative approach is to wait for a close & hold either above 1635.25 or below 1628.25

Kathy (08:27) CL chart shows new harmonic rotations forming w/ 98.74 being line in sand, above 98.35 has long oppty to 98.74, above there has dbl bearish ABCD tgt 99.22, a b/d 97.9 has 97.67 tgt, below there has extended tgt 96.54 which helps price reach 97 region, updated CL chart http://screencast.com/t/O8VO97LDrDs8

Kathy (14:49) DX daily perspective shows failure to bounce into around 82.232 has 79.85 region for important target http://screencast.com/t/XXRInuv24SR


One of NY’s finest researchers has joined Twitter. MrTopStep gives a big thumbs up to http://twitter.com/RVchartchatter



Today started with 350k ESU and 1.1k SPU traded on Globex, trading range was 1634.80 – 1618.00. Friday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1617.00 – 1634.70 before settling at 1618.40, down 12.5 handles. The economic calendar was light, but the Empire State manufacturing and the housing index, NAHB checked in firmer than expectations, lending early support.


On the regular trading hours the SPU gapped 13 handles higher to 1631.20-1632.20, marking the morning low. The 1636 area traded at 8:36 and briefly stalled before the 9:00 NAHB data checked in at 52 vs exp 45. By 10:11 had stepped up to double top at 1640.70 which was shy of last week’s Monday morning high of 1642.50. Traders cited short covering and mid-month money being put to work in front of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and the coming expiration as supporting factors. By 1:08 the SPU was converting the 1636 area and by 1:25 had sliced through the opening range, trading down to 1630 and on to 1624. The weakness was attributed to (13:10) Ben Bernanke is likely to signal that the US Federal Reserve is close to tapering down its $85bn-a-month in asset purchases when he holds a press conference on Wednesday, but balance that by saying subsequent moves depend on what happens to the economy. FT


Jimmy_Ticks (13:39) headline nervousness is good for traders and not so for asset managers/investors - who wants to put $$$ to work in a headline minefield. These are MrTopStep markets at the moment, two-way trade not so great for investors and option guys - unless you're selling OTM covered options. (13:42) DJT new lows and more from Jimmy_Ticks (13:49) Two months ago the market ignored every headline you threw at it.... now it's listening - in both directions. My money would be on these kind of headline conditions lasting until the Fed Sept meeting. redliontrader (13:46) early (closing) imbalance data stacking to the buy side. iceChat (14:13) still wavering here as we head into the close. redliontrader (14:19) imbalance meter moved to the sell side. Going into the closing imbalance 1633 area was trading and the MOC closing imbalance showed a moderate $480mil to the sell side. 1632.50 area traded on the cash close before settling at 1633.70, up 15.3 handles on the day.

Brian Shepard is a 20-year exchange member of the CME Group.

_____________________________________________________


YOU WANT A LOOK AT WHAT OUR TRADERS SEE EVERY DAY? SIGN UP FOR THE IM TRIAL AT http://mrtopstep.com/free/ IT’S THE REAL DEAL!

_____________________________________________________

Follow us on Twitter @MrTopStep http://twitter.com/mrtopstep

Sign up for our free mailing list at http://mrtopstep.com/ for full report.

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the above report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities.

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mts-marketrecap-330

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