We expect Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) to report in line first-quarter 2013 results before the opening bell on Apr 25.
Factors to Consider this Quarter
The genericization of Plavix (May 17, 2012) and Avapro (Mar 2012) in the US has resulted in significant loss of revenues for Bristol-Myers. Bristol-Myers co-developed both drugs with Sanofi (SNY). Bristol-Myers is looking to combat the generic threat hanging over its key drugs through partnering deals and acquisitions and introducing new products to augment its product portfolio. In Dec 2012, the US Food and Drug Administration cleared blood thinner Eliquis. Successful commercialization of Eliquis should boost Bristol-Myers’ top line significantly since the drug offers great commercial potential. Moreover, in Aug 2012, Bristol-Myers acquired Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in a bid to diversify its business to combat the generic threat and bolster its position in the lucrative diabetes market.
The efforts of Bristol-Myers notwithstanding, first-quarter 2013 results will likely continue to be hurt by the genericization of Plavix and Avapro. The company has delivered mixed results over the last four quarters, missing estimates in two.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter has moved down by two cents to 43 cents per share over the last 30 days.
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Bristol-Myers is likely to beat earnings estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive earnings Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP) (Read: Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Method) and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen.
Zacks ESP:The ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate Estimate and Zacks Consensus Estimate currently stand at 41 cents.
Zacks Rank #3 (Hold): Bristol-Myers’ Zacks Rank #3 lowers the predictive power of ESP because the Zacks Rank #3 when combined with an ESP of 0.00% indicates the possibility of in line results.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some other stocks you may want to consider as our model shows these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has an Earnings ESP of +3.85% and holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) has an Earnings ESP of +2.08% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.
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