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Bullish: Analysts Just Made An Incredible Upgrade To Their Agenus Inc. (NASDAQ:AGEN) Forecasts

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Shareholders in Agenus Inc. (NASDAQ:AGEN) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a major upgrade to their near-term forecasts. The consensus statutory numbers for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) increased, with their view clearly much more bullish on the company's business prospects. Investor sentiment seems to be improving too, with the share price up 9.2% to US$6.15 over the past 7 days. It will be interesting to see if this latest upgrade is enough to kickstart further buying interest in the stock.

Following the upgrade, the current consensus from Agenus' three analysts is for revenues of US$263m in 2021 which - if met - would reflect a huge 284% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 76% to US$0.28. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$158m and losses of US$1.03 per share in 2021. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

See our latest analysis for Agenus

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earnings-and-revenue-growth

The consensus price target rose 5.6% to US$9.50, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for this year. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Agenus, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$11.00 and the most bearish at US$8.00 per share. This shows there is still some diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Agenus' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14x annualised growth to the end of 2021 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 27% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Agenus is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The highlight for us was that the consensus reduced its estimated losses this year, perhaps suggesting Agenus is moving incrementally towards profitability. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. Given that the consensus looks almost universally bullish, with a substantial increase to forecasts and a higher price target, Agenus could be worth investigating further.

Analysts are clearly in love with Agenus at the moment, but before diving in - you should be aware that we've identified some warning flags with the business, such as a short cash runway. For more information, you can click through to our platform to learn more about this and the 3 other warning signs we've identified .

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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