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Bullish: Analysts Just Made A Massive Upgrade To Their CVR Energy, Inc. (NYSE:CVI) Forecasts

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CVR Energy, Inc. (NYSE:CVI) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's statutory forecasts. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance.

Following the upgrade, the current consensus from CVR Energy's six analysts is for revenues of US$6.6b in 2021 which - if met - would reflect a substantial 23% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 76% to US$0.49. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.6b and losses of US$1.11 per share in 2021. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

View our latest analysis for CVR Energy


The consensus price target fell 14%, to US$16.91, suggesting that the analysts remain pessimistic on the company, despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on CVR Energy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$25.03 and the most bearish at US$13.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the CVR Energy's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that CVR Energy's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 51% growth to the end of 2021 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.5% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.4% per year. So it looks like CVR Energy is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that analysts reduced their loss per share estimates for this year, reflecting increased optimism around CVR Energy's prospects. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. The declining price target is a puzzle, but still - with a serious upgrade to this year's expectations, it might be time to take another look at CVR Energy.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CVR Energy going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.