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Burlington Stores (BURL) to Report Q3 Earnings: What Awaits?

Zacks Equity Research

Burlington Stores, Inc. BURL is slated to release third-quarter fiscal 2019 results on Nov 26. In the preceding four quarters, this off-price retailer outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.7% on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 18.3%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.41, indicating an improvement of 16.5% from the year-ago quarter figure. The consensus estimate is in line with the high end of the company’s previously provided guided range of $1.37-$1.41. We note that the Zacks Consensus Estimate has remained stable in the past 30 days.

Key Factors to Note

Burlington Stores has been steadily increasing vendor counts, making technological advancements, initiating better marketing approach and focusing on localized assortments. The company has been concentrating on underpenetrated categories, particularly home, beauty and gifts, in order to make business less weather sensitive. Moreover, it has been gradually expanding store fleet.

All these endeavors have been aiding comparable sales, and in turn the top-line performance. Management had earlier projected total sales increase of 8.5-9.5% and comparable store sales growth of 2-3% for the third quarter. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1,781 million, suggesting growth of 9.7% from the prior-year period. The consensus estimate for comparable store sales is pegged at 2.9%.

While these tailwinds raise optimism, we cannot ignore the impact of stiff competition from discount retailers and other pure e-commerce players on the top line. Moreover, any deleverage in SG&A expenses and increase in freight costs cannot be ruled out. This may show on margins in the third quarter.

Burlington Stores, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise


Burlington Stores, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Burlington Stores, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Burlington Stores, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Burlington Stores this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Burlington Stores has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +0.44%.

Other Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Costco COST has an Earnings ESP of +1.01% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Dollar General DG has an Earnings ESP of +0.47% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Big Lots BIG has an Earnings ESP of +3.85% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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