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Before You Buy Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYSE:BXMT), Consider Its Volatility

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Simply Wall St
·4 min read
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If you own shares in Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYSE:BXMT) then it's worth thinking about how it contributes to the volatility of your portfolio, overall. In finance, Beta is a measure of volatility. Modern finance theory considers volatility to be a measure of risk, and there are two main types of price volatility. First, we have company specific volatility, which is the price gyrations of an individual stock. Holding at least 8 stocks can reduce this kind of risk across a portfolio. The second sort is caused by the natural volatility of markets, overall. For example, certain macroeconomic events will impact (virtually) all stocks on the market.

Some stocks see their prices move in concert with the market. Others tend towards stronger, gentler or unrelated price movements. Beta is a widely used metric to measure a stock's exposure to market risk (volatility). Before we go on, it's worth noting that Warren Buffett pointed out in his 2014 letter to shareholders that 'volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' Having said that, beta can still be rather useful. The first thing to understand about beta is that the beta of the overall market is one. A stock with a beta greater than one is more sensitive to broader market movements than a stock with a beta of less than one.

Check out our latest analysis for Blackstone Mortgage Trust

What BXMT's beta value tells investors

Zooming in on Blackstone Mortgage Trust, we see it has a five year beta of 1.17. This is above 1, so historically its share price has been influenced by the broader volatility of the stock market. Based on this history, investors should be aware that Blackstone Mortgage Trust are likely to rise strongly in times of greed, but sell off in times of fear. Many would argue that beta is useful in position sizing, but fundamental metrics such as revenue and earnings are more important overall. You can see Blackstone Mortgage Trust's revenue and earnings in the image below.

NYSE:BXMT Income Statement April 7th 2020
NYSE:BXMT Income Statement April 7th 2020

How does BXMT's size impact its beta?

Blackstone Mortgage Trust is a fairly large company. It has a market capitalisation of US$2.3b, which means it is probably on the radar of most investors. It takes deep pocketed investors to influence the share price of a large company, so it's a little unusual to see companies this size with high beta values. It may be that that this company is more heavily impacted by broader economic factors than most.

What this means for you:

Since Blackstone Mortgage Trust has a reasonably high beta, it's worth considering why it is so heavily influenced by broader market sentiment. For example, it might be a high growth stock or have a lot of operating leverage in its business model. In order to fully understand whether BXMT is a good investment for you, we also need to consider important company-specific fundamentals such as Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s financial health and performance track record. I highly recommend you dive deeper by considering the following:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for BXMT’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for BXMT’s outlook.

  2. Past Track Record: Has BXMT been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of BXMT's historicals for more clarity.

  3. Other Interesting Stocks: It's worth checking to see how BXMT measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.