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Should You Buy Facebook Ahead of Q3 Earnings?

Sweta Killa

Social media giant Facebook FB is set to release third-quarter fiscal 2019 results on Oct 30 after market close. The company has shed nearly 3.3% over the past three months, underperforming the industry, which saw average price decline of 1.7%. The weakness might reverse if Facebook beats earnings estimates this quarter.



Earnings Whispers

Facebook has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of +5.01%. According to our methodology, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Facebook saw negative earnings estimate revision of a penny over the past 30 days for the soon-to-be-reported quarter. It delivered average negative earnings surprise of 17.67% in the past four quarters. The stock belongs to a bottom-ranked Zacks Industry (bottom 40%) and has a VGM Score of C.

 

Facebook, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Facebook, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Facebook, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Facebook, Inc. Quote

However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 earnings indicates growth of 7.95% from the year-ago reported figure. Revenues are expected to increase 26.2% in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

According to the analysts polled by Zacks, Facebook has an average target price of $230.27, with nearly 88% of the analysts giving a Strong Buy or a Buy rating ahead of the company’s earnings. This represents about 21.6% upside from the current price (read: Can Q3 Earnings Bring Back the Allure for FAANG ETFs?).

What to Watch

Investors are keen to know about the FTC’s new investigation for potential violations of U.S. antitrust law on the company’s profitability. The social media giant expects revenues to decelerate sequentially in the second half of the year.

ETFs in Focus

Given this, ETFs having the highest allocation to the social media giant will be in focus going into its earnings announcement. These funds would be the potential movers if Facebook comes up with a positive earnings surprise. While there are several ETFs in the space with FB in their basket, we have highlighted eight funds that have the social media giant in their top five holdings:

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR XLC — The ETF has accumulated $6.2 billion and has a Zacks ETF Rank #2 (Buy). Facebook takes the top spot with 18.7% of the portfolio (read: ETFs to Tap on Netflix' Strong Subscriber Comeback in Q3).

Fidelity MSCI Communication Services Index ETF FCOM — This fund manages $447.8 million in its asset base and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold). Facebook takes the top spot, making up for 14.9% share.

Vanguard Communication Services ETF VOX — The fund has $2.1 billion in AUM and carries a Zacks ETF Rank #3. Facebook occupies the second position and accounts for 14.4% share.

iShares Global Comm Services ETF IXP — This fund has AUM of $247 million and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3. Facebook takes the top spot, making up for 12.1% share.

Global X Social Media Index ETF SOCL — The fund has amassed $120.9 million in its asset base and carries a Zacks ETF Rank #3. Facebook takes the top spot with 11.1% allocation (read: Twitter Tanks: Is It Time to Log Out of Social Media ETF?).

First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index FDN — The fund has AUM of $7.9 billion and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3. Here, FB occupies the second position, accounting for 7.5% share.

UP Fintech China-U.S. Internet Titans ETF TTTN – The ETF has AUM of $8.2 million and Facebook is the third firm, making up for 8.2% share in the basket.

Invesco NASDAQ Internet ETF PNQI — It has AUM of $568 million and a Zacks ETF Rank #2. Here, Facebook takes the third spot with 8.2% share.

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