Today we're going to take a look at the well-established Natixis S.A. (EPA:KN). The company's stock saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the ENXTPA. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Natixis’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
Is Natixis still cheap?
Natixis appears to be overvalued by 23.28% at the moment, based on my discounted cash flow valuation. The stock is currently priced at €3.77 on the market compared to my intrinsic value of €3.06. This means that the buying opportunity has probably disappeared for now. If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Since Natixis’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What does the future of Natixis look like?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with an extremely negative double-digit change in profit expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth is certainly not a driver of a buy decision. It seems like high uncertainty is on the cards for Natixis, at least in the near future.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? If you believe KN should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. Given the uncertainty from negative growth in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on KN for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. Price climbed passed its true value, in addition to a risky future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?
Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Natixis. You can find everything you need to know about Natixis in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Natixis, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.