Nick Scali Limited (ASX:NCK), might not be a large cap stock, but it led the ASX gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Let’s examine Nick Scali’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.
What is Nick Scali worth?
According to my valuation model, Nick Scali seems to be fairly priced at around 19% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Nick Scali today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth A$8.43, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Nick Scali’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What kind of growth will Nick Scali generate?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with a relatively muted profit growth of 6.6% expected over the next couple of years, growth doesn’t seem like a key driver for a buy decision for Nick Scali, at least in the short term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? NCK’s future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on NCK, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. At Simply Wall St, we found 3 warning signs for Nick Scali and we think they deserve your attention.
If you are no longer interested in Nick Scali, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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