When Should You Buy Northland Power Inc (TSX:NPI)?
Northland Power Inc (TSX:NPI) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 19.1x, which is lower than the industry average of 45.5x. While NPI might seem like an attractive stock to buy, it is important to understand the assumptions behind the P/E ratio before you make any investment decisions. In this article, I will deconstruct the P/E ratio and highlight what you need to be careful of when using the P/E ratio. See our latest analysis for NPI
Breaking down the P/E ratio
The P/E ratio is a popular ratio used in relative valuation since earnings power is a key driver of investment value. It compares a stock’s price per share to the stock’s earnings per share. A more intuitive way of understanding the P/E ratio is to think of it as how much investors are paying for each dollar of the company’s earnings.
Formula
Price-Earnings Ratio = Price per share ÷ Earnings per share
P/E Calculation for NPI
Price per share = 23.7
Earnings per share = 1.239
∴ Price-Earnings Ratio = 23.7 ÷ 1.239 = 19.1x
The P/E ratio itself doesn’t tell you a lot; however, it becomes very insightful when you compare it with other similar companies. We preferably want to compare the stock’s P/E ratio to the average of companies that have similar features to NPI, such as capital structure and profitability. A quick method of creating a peer group is to use companies in the same industry, which is what I will do. Since similar companies should technically have similar P/E ratios, we can very quickly come to some conclusions about the stock if the ratios differ.
NPI’s P/E of 19.1x is lower than its industry peers (45.5x), which implies that each dollar of NPI’s earnings is being undervalued by investors. As such, our analysis shows that NPI represents an under-priced stock.
A few caveats
However, before you rush out to buy NPI, it is important to note that this conclusion is based on two key assumptions. The first is that our “similar companies” are actually similar to NPI. If the companies aren’t similar, the difference in P/E might be a result of other factors. For example, if you accidentally compared higher growth firms with NPI, then NPI’s P/E would naturally be lower since investors would reward its peers’ higher growth with a higher price. Alternatively, if you inadvertently compared less risky firms with NPI, NPI’s P/E would again be lower since investors would reward its peers’ lower risk with a higher price as well. The second assumption that must hold true is that the stocks we are comparing NPI to are fairly valued by the market. If this assumption is violated, NPI's P/E may be lower than its peers because its peers are actually overvalued by investors.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? You may have already conducted fundamental analysis on the stock as a shareholder, so its current undervaluation could signal a good buying opportunity to increase your exposure to NPI. Now that you understand the ins and outs of the PE metric, you should know to bear in mind its limitations before you make an investment decision.
Are you a potential investor? If NPI has been on your watch list for a while, it is best you also consider its intrinsic valuation. Looking at PE on its own will not give you the full picture of the stock as an investment, so I suggest you should also look at other relative valuation metrics like EV/EBITDA or PEG.
PE is one aspect of your portfolio construction to consider when holding or entering into a stock. But it is certainly not the only factor. Take a look at our most recent infographic report on Northland Power for a more in-depth analysis of the stock to help you make a well-informed investment decision. Since we know a limitation of PE is it doesn't properly account for growth, you can use our free platform to see my list of stocks with a high growth potential and see if their PE is still reasonable.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.
