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When Should You Buy Samson Oil & Gas Limited (ASX:SSN)?

Thomas Auclair

Samson Oil & Gas Limited (ASX:SSN) trades with a trailing P/E of 1.9x, which is lower than the industry average of 24.1x. Although some investors may jump to the conclusion that this is a great buying opportunity, understanding the assumptions behind the P/E ratio might change your mind. In this article, I will break down what the P/E ratio is, how to interpret it and what to watch out for. Check out our latest analysis for Samson Oil & Gas

Demystifying the P/E ratio

ASX:SSN PE PEG Gauge Sep 20th 17

P/E is a popular ratio used for relative valuation. By comparing a stock’s price per share to its earnings per share, we are able to see how much investors are paying for each dollar of the company’s earnings.

Formula

Price-Earnings Ratio = Price per share ÷ Earnings per share

P/E Calculation for SSN

Price per share = 0

Earnings per share = 0.001

∴ Price-Earnings Ratio = 0 ÷ 0.001 = 1.9x

The P/E ratio isn’t a metric you view in isolation and only becomes useful when you compare it against other similar companies. We preferably want to compare the stock’s P/E ratio to the average of companies that have similar features to SSN, such as capital structure and profitability. A quick method of creating a peer group is to use companies in the same industry, which is what I will do. Since similar companies should technically have similar P/E ratios, we can very quickly come to some conclusions about the stock if the ratios differ.

At 1.9x, SSN’s P/E is lower than its industry peers (24.1x). This implies that investors are undervaluing each dollar of SSN’s earnings. As such, our analysis shows that SSN represents an under-priced stock.

Assumptions to watch out for

Before you jump to the conclusion that SSN represents the perfect buying opportunity, it is important to realise that our conclusion rests on two important assertions. The first is that our peer group actually contains companies that are similar to SSN. If this isn’t the case, the difference in P/E could be due to some other factors. For example, if you accidentally compared higher growth firms with SSN, then SSN’s P/E would naturally be lower since investors would reward its peers’ higher growth with a higher price. Alternatively, if you inadvertently compared less risky firms with SSN, SSN’s P/E would again be lower since investors would reward its peers’ lower risk with a higher price as well. The second assumption that must hold true is that the stocks we are comparing SSN to are fairly valued by the market. If this does not hold, there is a possibility that SSN’s P/E is lower because firms in our peer group are being overvalued by the market.

ASX:SSN Future Profit Sep 20th 17

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? You may have already conducted fundamental analysis on the stock as a shareholder, so its current undervaluation could signal a good buying opportunity to increase your exposure to SSN. Now that you understand the ins and outs of the PE metric, you should know to bear in mind its limitations before you make an investment decision.

Are you a potential investor? If SSN has been on your watch list for a while, it is best you also consider its intrinsic valuation. Looking at PE on its own will not give you the full picture of the stock as an investment, so I suggest you should also look at other relative valuation metrics like EV/EBITDA or PEG.

PE is one aspect of your portfolio construction to consider when holding or entering into a stock. But it is certainly not the only factor. Take a look at our most recent infographic report on Samson Oil & Gas for a more in-depth analysis of the stock to help you make a well-informed investment decision. Since we know a limitation of PE is it doesn't properly account for growth, you can use our free platform to see my list of stocks with a high growth potential and see if their PE is still reasonable.


To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.