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When Should You Buy SG Fleet Group Limited (ASX:SGF)?

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·3 min read
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While SG Fleet Group Limited (ASX:SGF) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the ASX over the last few months, increasing to AU$2.58 at one point, and dropping to the lows of AU$2.19. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether SG Fleet Group's current trading price of AU$2.19 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at SG Fleet Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

See our latest analysis for SG Fleet Group

What's the opportunity in SG Fleet Group?

According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 15.63x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 19.25x, which means if you buy SG Fleet Group today, you’d be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe SG Fleet Group should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that SG Fleet Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What does the future of SG Fleet Group look like?

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 79% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for SG Fleet Group. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? SGF’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at SGF? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below the industry PE ratio?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on SGF, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for SGF, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, SG Fleet Group has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

If you are no longer interested in SG Fleet Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.