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Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCVL), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the NASDAQGS over the last few months. With many analysts covering the stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Shoe Carnival’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What's the opportunity in Shoe Carnival?
According to my valuation model, Shoe Carnival seems to be fairly priced at around 17% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Shoe Carnival today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $34.31, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Shoe Carnival’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What kind of growth will Shoe Carnival generate?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Shoe Carnival’s earnings over the next few years are expected to double, indicating a very optimistic future ahead. This should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? SCVL’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on SCVL, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
If you'd like to know more about Shoe Carnival as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Shoe Carnival, and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
If you are no longer interested in Shoe Carnival, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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