U.S. Markets open in 6 hrs 41 mins

Buying or selling most volatile players in Fantasy Baseball drafts

We’ve keyed in on the players with the largest range of fantasy draft outcomes, and which end of the spectrum you should be on them when you’re on the clock. To do that let’s look at the guys that are the most volatile in the average of their variance of high-to-low pick plus high pick-to-average draft position (ADP) in NFBC drafts. 

I’m focusing on the players that interest me the most but you can see the entire top 25.

Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners (Volatility rank in Top 100 No. 1)

According to our friends at Inside Edge, Cano’s well-hit rate (of at bats) was actually stronger in 2017 than in 2016. But the power declined. His plate discipline was below average in 2017 but still better than in 2016. And he remains elite with two-strikes (.313 on base average vs. league average of .253). I don’t see evidence of decline despite the advanced age (age 35 season). Remember, Cano is a borderline Hall of Famer and these players have a more gradual aging curve. He seems reasonably priced at ADP (84) or higher. Picking him later than ADP is a bargain.

Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (No. 3)

I’m out on Cabrera. Yes, he’s a Hall of Famer too and in the conversation as best right-handed hitter of all-time. But the back injury is very worrisome. It’s prematurely wrecked Hall of Fame-level careers, from Ralph Kiner to Don Mattingly and Keith Hernandez and beyond. Cabrera’s Inside Edge hitting grades since 2015: A+, A, B-minus. I will not draft him at his ADP of 96 nor however far he falls beyond that.

Chris Taylor, Los Angeles Dodgers (No. 5)

He slugged way over his well-hit rate (.163 vs. the league average of .155). But he was an A-minus hitter overall after being a D-plus in just 61 at bats in 2016. He never had a chance to play before last season and now enters his age 27 season. His power in the minors was subpar, over nearly 2,000 plate appearances. I’m willing to risk being wrong on Taylor in the top 100 for sure (ADP 92). I’m barely tempted when he falls the furthest (174).

Domingo Santana, Milwaukee Brewers (No. 10)

He led the Brewers last year in runs created with a lineup of all Santana’s generating 6.8 runs per game. I understand playing time is an issue but the guy played last year at 24 and has over 1,000 plate appearances with an OPS+ of 115 (which ignores the fact that he plays in a great hitter’s park, which of course we SHOULD NOT ignore). His most comparable hitters through age 24 according to Baseball Reference are Jose Ramirez, Vernon Wells, Matt Kemp, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Larry Walker…. The Brewers said as things stand they’re just rotating players evenly and Santana will get 500-plus plate appearances. But you don’t sit guys like Santana at age 25. I can’t let him slide out of the top 120 and have no issues taking him at or slightly above his ADP of 89. Remember, Santana last year was the 33rd most valuable hitter in fantasy.

[Batter up: Join a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for free today]

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (No. 2)

I see 11 Ks per nine innings and the market is forecasting that, too. This is a big change from 2014 when the projection systems forecasted a pedestrian K rate for Masahiro Tanaka and I gave him the same rate he generated in Japan because Japanese hitters may be worse than MLB hitters overall but they are better at not striking out. It turned out I was too conservative — and Tanaka’s walk rate declined too. So let’s figure 150 innings for Ohtani and about 187 Ks and about 50 walks. The ratios flow from there. My biggest concern is that he was unable to pitch due to an ankle injury last year. So going at 96 is a bargain, I believe and I would be active very close to his high-water mark of 48.

Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees (No. 8)

The recipe to beat Tanaka is to not swing at pitches out of the strikezone. Of course, this is easier said than done. Only about 10% of his Ks were looking and the league average is about 23%. Tanaka’s swing and miss stuff is insane — Danny Salazar, Robbie Ray, Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber are the only pitchers with a higher rate in 2017, according to Inside Edge. When hitters sit on the fastball and guess right, he gets hit (well-hit rate slightly below average). But Tanaka counters this with an elite first-pitch strike percentage (64% compared with league average of 60%). I love Tanaka at ADP (100) as your third pitcher and given the likelihood of wins given his offense and bullpen, reaching near his high of 60 is not off-the-wall at all.

Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros (No. 9)

He’s still tethered to his lack of any prospect pedigree. Here’s the key stat for Keuchel: he gets the first batter out 78% of the time compared with the league average rate of 68%. You start off with an out and no one on and run probability craters. The guy has been very good to great in two of the last three seasons. Yet there he sits often at his ADP of 78 and I can see him going in the top 60 if not quite his high mark of 45. Keuchel is an extreme ground ball pitcher with great control in the best pitcher’s park in baseball. Oh, and he plays for the World Champions. What’s not to love?

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds (No. 11)

Why chase a guy on a terrible team? Now, a good pitcher makes the team at least decent, I understand. But Castillo is not proven. I’m siding with the skeptics here with the max pick of 172 and not the believers who are in near his high-point of 52. He’s not good at working ahead of hitters, especially on the first pitch (57% strikes). Also the risk of arm injury is present with his fastball velocity being too fast (97.5 on average, possibly a worry for Ohtani, too). I’d bet Steamer nails it here: 3.91 ERA in 144 innings.

More Fantasy Baseball draft advice from Yahoo Sports

  • Facebook under fire as US officials back removal of Zuckerberg as chairman
    Business
    The Telegraph

    Facebook under fire as US officials back removal of Zuckerberg as chairman

    Mark Zuckerberg came under fresh pressure after four US officials called for a boardroom shakeup at Facebook. Three state treasurers and a top official from New York have joined a shareholders’ motion to install an independent chairman at Facebook, claiming the move would improve governance and accountability. In June, Boston-based Trillium Asset Management, which holds $11m in Facebook shares, launched an effort to split the role of chairman and chief executive at Facebook following scandals over the hacking of personal data from millions of users and claims of hate speech and election-rigging.

  • You've won the Mega Millions jackpot. Now what?
    News
    Associated Press

    You've won the Mega Millions jackpot. Now what?

    Despite the terrible odds — one in 302.5 million for those keeping score at home — someone will eventually match all six numbers and win the Mega Millions jackpot, now at $900 million. Here are some answers for someone holding that prized lottery ticket. Lottery officials recommend winners take a deep breath, put their winning ticket in a safe spot and consult with a reputable financial planner before popping over to the lottery headquarters.

  • Business
    Benzinga

    KeyCorp's Q3 Earnings Preview

    KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) unveils its next round of earnings Thursday. Get prepared with Benzinga's ultimate preview for KeyCorp's Q3 earnings. Earnings and Revenue Wall Street expects EPS of 45 cents and sales around $1.64 billion. KeyCorp reported a profit

  • Ken Langone: 'Who the hell in their right frame of mind would be buying bonds now?'
    Business
    Yahoo Finance

    Ken Langone: 'Who the hell in their right frame of mind would be buying bonds now?'

    Billionaire investor and philanthropist Ken Langone, the founder of The Home Depot (HD) and chairman of Invemed Associates, argued that there’s some “big time” structural problems in the market right now. Because if we are on a trajectory of raising rates that means, and if it keeps going that way and I don’t know how high it will go, and it keeps going that way then all the sudden the guy who bought those bonds is going to be looking at a fairly decent loss,” Langone said.

  • Business
    TheStreet.com

    UnitedHealth Has Made a Long Rise, but an EKG of the Indicators Gives Us Pause

    Let's review the charts and indicators of this health care leader. In this daily bar chart of UNH, below, we can see a mixed state of affairs. The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has moved up the past 12 months but its rise has not kept up with the price gains.

  • Is "the Apple Store of Weed" a Buy After the Biggest Marijuana Acquisition in U.S. History?
    Business
    Motley Fool

    Is "the Apple Store of Weed" a Buy After the Biggest Marijuana Acquisition in U.S. History?

    MedMen's cannabis retail locations are upscale and well designed, just as Apple Stores are. MedMen stock has more than doubled so far in 2018, performing better than several more well-known Canadian marijuana stocks.

  • A former GE exec who trained new managers found that almost all of them were making the same mistake
    Business
    Business Insider

    A former GE exec who trained new managers found that almost all of them were making the same mistake

    Beth Comstock is the former vice chair of General Electric. Comstock would hand out "permission slips" authorizing employees to take risks — but she also said it's important for people to stop hiding behind their excuses. Beth Comstock doesn't tolerate excuses.

  • Employee Accused of Urinating on Production Line at Food Processing Facility
    Business
    WTKR - Norfolk

    Employee Accused of Urinating on Production Line at Food Processing Facility

    Smithfield Foods, Inc. said in a statement Tuesday that it disposed of more than 50,000 pounds of product after reports of an employee urinating at his station at the company’s processing facility in Virginia.

  • Alibaba (BABA) Dips More Than Broader Markets: What You Should Know
    Finance
    Zacks

    Alibaba (BABA) Dips More Than Broader Markets: What You Should Know

    Investors will be hoping for strength from BABA as it approaches its next earnings release, which is expected to be November 2, 2018. On that day, BABA is projected to report earnings of $1.16 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 10.08%. Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for BABA.

  • These 3 Retailers Will Benefit From the Death of Sears
    Business
    Motley Fool

    These 3 Retailers Will Benefit From the Death of Sears

    Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) recently filed for bankruptcy protection and announced that it will close nearly 200 stores by the end of the year. Sears still hopes to operate at least 400 stores going forward, but their fate remains uncertain as the company undergoes a painful restructuring to alleviate its billions of dollars in debt. Sears' bankruptcy was telegraphed years ago, as the retailer struggled with declining mall traffic and intense competition from superstores and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN).

  • Intel restructures manufacturing organization
    Finance
    American City Business Journals

    Intel restructures manufacturing organization

    Chip giant Intel is restructuring its technology and manufacturing business group as it chases more connected device markets and grapples with delays on its next chip generation. In a memo to employees, reviewed by the Business Journal, Group President and Chief Engineering Officer Murthy Renduchintala described splitting the technology and manufacturing business into three groups. The three new groups are technology development, manufacturing and operations and global supply chain.

  • Netflix soaring with earnings beat, Target shares slip and Home Depot takes a dive with Credit Suisse downgrade
    Finance
    Yahoo Finance

    Netflix soaring with earnings beat, Target shares slip and Home Depot takes a dive with Credit Suisse downgrade

    Let’s check out the Yahoo Finance charts of the day. Netflix (NFLX): Shares are up in early trade, at around 6.3%.  The streaming giant reported strong user growth and exceeded expectations for adding subscribers during the third quarter. Netflix easily

  • Kinder Morgan Canada's profit surges on TransMountain sale
    Business
    Reuters

    Kinder Morgan Canada's profit surges on TransMountain sale

    The company said on Wednesday it expects to return about C$1.2 billion ($921.5 million) or C$11.40 per restricted voting share from the sale to its shareholders. Its parent, U.S.-based Kinder Morgan Inc, closed the sale of the controversial Trans Mountain pipeline to the Canadian government for C$4.5 billion in August. Kinder Morgan Canada said net income rose to C$1.35 billion in the three months ended Sept. 30, from C$42.4 million, a year earlier.

  • The First Episode of The Conners' Ratings Drops From Roseanne's Premiere Success
    News
    Time

    The First Episode of The Conners' Ratings Drops From Roseanne's Premiere Success

    Although the debut of ABC’s The Conners managed to outperform the Roseanne finale, its ratings were nowhere near those of the revival’s premiere. Tuesday night’s episode of The Conners—a spinoff starring the Roseanne cast minus Roseanne Barr—pulled in 10.5 million viewers with 2.3 rating among adults 18-49, beating out This Is Us for the demographic’s top spot of the night. Titled “Keep on Trucking,” the premiere of The Conners confirmed previous reports that Roseanne’s absense would be explained by having her character die from an opioid overdose.

  • Why American Airlines Group Stock Jumped 6% -- Then Gave Most of It Back
    Business
    Motley Fool

    Why American Airlines Group Stock Jumped 6% -- Then Gave Most of It Back

    Shares of American Airlines Group (NASDAQ: AAL) popped 6.4% in early trading Wednesday before retracting to close the day up less than 1% -- just 0.9%, to be precise. An upgrade assigned to the stock by Deutsche Bank appears to be the primary reason for the move. A Deutsche Bank analyst upgraded American Airlines stock from "hold" to "buy" on Wednesday, as we're told by our friends at StreetInsider.com.

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Earnings Preview: Here's What to Look Out For
    Business
    Zacks

    Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Earnings Preview: Here's What to Look Out For

    Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2018. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price. The earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 24, 2018, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations.

  • Legal pot in Canada putting pressure on US
    CGC
    Yahoo Finance Video

    Legal pot in Canada putting pressure on US

    Canada’s moves to legalize recreational marijuana could have major impacts on the US. Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous speaks with Alexis Keenan about the state of legalization in this country.

  • Housing Stocks Tumble Midday; Home Depot Dents Dow
    Finance
    Investing.com

    Housing Stocks Tumble Midday; Home Depot Dents Dow

    Investing.com - Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and other housing-leveraged stocks fell in midday trading following disappointing data on home construction. Home Depot fell about 4.2% at 12:08 PM ET (16:08 GMT) and was a drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average

  • Better Buy: The Home Depot, Inc. vs. Lowe's
    Business
    Motley Fool

    Better Buy: The Home Depot, Inc. vs. Lowe's

    Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) have helped countless homeowners increase the value of their homes. They've also made many investors rich. With their shares having soared 879% and 484%, respectively, over the past decade, Home Depot and Lowe

  • Disney vs Netflix: Here's which stock would have made you richer if you invested $1,000 10 years ago
    Business
    CNBC

    Disney vs Netflix: Here's which stock would have made you richer if you invested $1,000 10 years ago

    On October 16, 1923, Walt and Roy Disney founded The Walt Disney Company and, nearly a century later, the company is one of the largest and most successful media conglomerates in the world. The answer is Netflix. According to CNBC calculations, a $1,000 investment in Netflix in October 2008 would be worth more than $97,560 as of after the earning bell on Monday, or more than 96 times as much, including price appreciation and dividends reinvested.

  • Boeing (BA) Q3 Earnings Preview: What to Expect
    Business
    Zacks

    Boeing (BA) Q3 Earnings Preview: What to Expect

    Boeing (BA) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2018. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price. The earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 24, 2018, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations.

  • Nvidia (NVDA) Dips More Than Broader Markets: What You Should Know
    Business
    Zacks

    Nvidia (NVDA) Dips More Than Broader Markets: What You Should Know

    Heading into today, shares of the maker of graphics chips for gaming and artificial intelligence had lost 9.29% over the past month, lagging the Computer and Technology sector's loss of 4.86% and the S&P 500's loss of 3.08% in that time. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $3.25 billion, up 23.44% from the year-ago period. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the company's business outlook.

  • Where Will NVIDIA Be in 5 Years?
    Business
    Motley Fool

    Where Will NVIDIA Be in 5 Years?

    At one time, NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) floated under the radar in the technology sector. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) were then niche tech products that appealed mainly to graphic artists and hardcore PC gamers, but that all changed over the last

  • Business
    Benzinga

    Kinder Morgan's Q3 Earnings Preview

    Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) will be releasing its next round of earnings Wednesday. For all of the relevant information, here is your guide for the Q3 earnings announcement. Earnings and Revenue Analysts expect Kinder Morgan earnings of 21 cents per share

  • Steven Mnuchin, Who Sat on Sears' Board for Years, Could Impact the Pensions of Thousands of Workers
    Business
    Fortune

    Steven Mnuchin, Who Sat on Sears' Board for Years, Could Impact the Pensions of Thousands of Workers

    Long before he was Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin was a student at Yale University. One of those was Eddie Lampert. Lampert, of course, is the recently departed CEO of Sears Holdings, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy Monday.