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CACI International Inc Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Simply Wall St
·4 min read

As you might know, CACI International Inc (NYSE:CACI) recently reported its quarterly numbers. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$1.5b were in line with what the analysts predicted, CACI International surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$3.67 per share, a notable 16% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for CACI International

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from CACI International's twelve analysts is for revenues of US$6.14b in 2021, which would reflect a reasonable 5.6% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.0% to US$14.94. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$6.13b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.07 in 2021. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on CACI International's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$287, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on CACI International, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$315 and the most bearish at US$240 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the CACI International's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that CACI International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 5.6%, compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 14% next year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that CACI International is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around CACI International's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that CACI International's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$287, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for CACI International going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for CACI International that you need to take into consideration.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.