Calculating The Fair Value Of Fortinet, Inc. (NASDAQ:FTNT)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Fortinet fair value estimate is US$78.42

• Current share price of US$67.77 suggests Fortinet is potentially trading close to its fair value

• The US$74.73 analyst price target for FTNT is 4.7% less than our estimate of fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Fortinet, Inc. (NASDAQ:FTNT) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Fortinet

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$1.85b	US$2.26b	US$2.83b	US$3.34b	US$3.76b	US$4.07b	US$4.33b	US$4.55b	US$4.75b	US$4.92b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x22	Analyst x20	Analyst x5	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 8.23%	Est @ 6.40%	Est @ 5.11%	Est @ 4.21%	Est @ 3.58%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.1%	US$1.7k	US$1.9k	US$2.2k	US$2.4k	US$2.5k	US$2.6k	US$2.5k	US$2.4k	US$2.4k	US$2.3k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$23b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$4.9b× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (8.1%– 2.1%) = US$84b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$84b÷ ( 1 + 8.1%)¹⁰= US$39b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$62b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$67.8, the company appears about fair value at a 14% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Fortinet as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.007. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Fortinet

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

• No major weaknesses identified for FTNT.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.

• Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.

Threat

• Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Fortinet, we've compiled three essential elements you should explore:

1. Financial Health: Does FTNT have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.

2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for FTNT's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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