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Calculating The Fair Value Of IAC/InterActiveCorp (NASDAQ:IAC)

Seth Doty

I am going to run you through how I calculated the intrinsic value of IAC/InterActiveCorp (NASDAQ:IAC) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This is done using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not January 2019 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for IAC/InterActiveCorp by following the link below.

See our latest analysis for IAC/InterActiveCorp

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The calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. To begin with we have to get estimates of the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount the sum of these cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate.

5-year cash flow forecast

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Levered FCF ($, Millions) $815.21 $1.06k $1.23k $1.50k $1.78k
Source Analyst x10 Analyst x8 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2
Present Value Discounted @ 9.91% $741.69 $877.13 $923.89 $1.03k $1.11k

Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$4.7b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after the five years. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.7%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 9.9%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2023 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.8b × (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (9.9% – 2.7%) = US$25b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US$25b ÷ ( 1 + 9.9%)5 = US$16b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is US$21b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of $246.16. Compared to the current share price of $211.36, the stock is about right, perhaps slightly undervalued at a 14% discount to what it is available for right now.

NASDAQGS:IAC Intrinsic Value Export January 29th 19

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at IAC/InterActiveCorp as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 9.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.988. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For IAC, I’ve compiled three essential aspects you should further examine:

  1. Financial Health: Does IAC have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does IAC’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of IAC? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every US stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.