Calculating The Fair Value Of LHC Group Inc (NASDAQ:LHCG)
In this article I am going to calculate the intrinsic value of LHC Group Inc (NASDAQ:LHCG) using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. Also note that this article was written in February 2018 so be sure check the latest calculation for LHC Group here.
Crunching the numbers
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have perpetual stable growth rate. Firstly, I use the analyst consensus estimates of LHCG’s levered free cash flow (FCF) over the next five years and discounted these figures at the rate of 8.49%. When estimates weren’t available, I’ve extrapolated the average annual growth rate over the previous five years, capped at a reasonable level. This resulted in a present value of 5-year cash flow of US$261.65M. Keen to understand how I arrived at this number? Read our detailed analysis here.
The infographic above illustrates how LHCG’s top and bottom lines are expected to move in the future, which should give you some color on LHCG’s outlook. Then, I calculate the terminal value, which is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. It’s appropriate to use the 10-year government bond rate of 2.8% as the stable growth rate, which is rightly below GDP growth, but more towards the conservative side. The present value of the terminal value after discounting it back five years is US$940.53M.
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is US$1.20B. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value of $65.75, which, compared to the current share price of $66.13, we find that LHC Group is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued at the time of writing.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company.
For LHCG, there are three important aspects you should further research:
Financial Health: Does LHCG have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does LHCG’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of LHCG? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NASDAQ every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.
