U.S. Markets closed
  • S&P 500

    4,704.54
    +15.87 (+0.34%)
     
  • Dow 30

    35,870.95
    -60.10 (-0.17%)
     
  • Nasdaq

    15,993.71
    +72.14 (+0.45%)
     
  • Russell 2000

    2,363.59
    -13.42 (-0.56%)
     
  • Gold

    1,861.20
    -0.20 (-0.01%)
     
  • Silver

    24.88
    -0.02 (-0.08%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.1369
    -0.0006 (-0.0568%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    1.5890
    -0.0150 (-0.94%)
     
  • Vix

    17.59
    +0.48 (+2.81%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.3497
    -0.0003 (-0.0216%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    114.3040
    +0.0520 (+0.0455%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    54,667.94
    +399.21 (+0.74%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    1,402.14
    -65.80 (-4.48%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    7,255.96
    -35.24 (-0.48%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    29,683.09
    +84.43 (+0.29%)
     

Calculating The Fair Value Of ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE)

  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
·6 min read
In this article:
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for ONEOK

Is ONEOK fairly valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Levered FCF ($, Millions)

US$1.62b

US$1.47b

US$1.47b

US$1.47b

US$1.45b

US$1.44b

US$1.45b

US$1.46b

US$1.48b

US$1.50b

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x4

Analyst x2

Analyst x2

Analyst x2

Est @ -1.49%

Est @ -0.38%

Est @ 0.4%

Est @ 0.95%

Est @ 1.33%

Est @ 1.6%

Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 12%

US$1.4k

US$1.2k

US$1.0k

US$931

US$818

US$727

US$652

US$587

US$531

US$481

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$8.4b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 12%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.5b× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (12%– 2.2%) = US$16b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$16b÷ ( 1 + 12%)10= US$5.0b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$13b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$27.5, the company appears about fair value at a 8.6% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
dcf

Important assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at ONEOK as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.637. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For ONEOK, we've compiled three further items you should consider:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 6 warning signs for ONEOK (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

  2. Future Earnings: How does OKE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.