Calculating The Fair Value Of RPM International Inc (NYSE:RPM)
In this article I am going to calculate the intrinsic value of RPM International Inc (NYSE:RPM) by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will be using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not October 2018 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for RPM International by following the link below.
See our latest analysis for RPM International
What’s the value?
I’m using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have perpetual stable growth rate. To start off with we need to estimate the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. The sum of these cash flows is then discounted to today’s value.
5-year cash flow estimate
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | $343.09 | $478.10 | $702.00 | $723.00 | $758.51 |
Source | Analyst x7 | Analyst x5 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 4.91% |
Present Value Discounted @ 11.92% | $306.56 | $381.72 | $500.81 | $460.87 | $432.03 |
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$2.1b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.9%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 11.9%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$759m × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (11.9% – 2.9%) = US$8.7b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US$8.7b ÷ ( 1 + 11.9%)5 = US$5.0b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is US$7.0b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding, or the equivalent number if this is a depositary receipt or ADR. This results in an intrinsic value of $53.07. Compared to the current share price of $59.97, the stock is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued and not available at a discount at this time.
The assumptions
I’d like to point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at RPM International as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 11.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.272. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For RPM, I’ve compiled three key aspects you should further examine:
Financial Health: Does RPM have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does RPM’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of RPM? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NYSE every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.
