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Caledonia Mining PLC Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued

·4 min read

- By GF Value

The stock of Caledonia Mining PLC (AMEX:CMCL, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $14.43 per share and the market cap of $174.9 million, Caledonia Mining PLC stock appears to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for Caledonia Mining PLC is shown in the chart below.


Caledonia Mining PLC Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued
Caledonia Mining PLC Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued

Because Caledonia Mining PLC is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 9.1% over the past five years.

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Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company's financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. Caledonia Mining PLC has a cash-to-debt ratio of 29.51, which which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. The overall financial strength of Caledonia Mining PLC is 9 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Caledonia Mining PLC is strong. This is the debt and cash of Caledonia Mining PLC over the past years:

Caledonia Mining PLC Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued
Caledonia Mining PLC Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued

It is less risky to invest in profitable companies, especially those with consistent profitability over long term. A company with high profit margins is usually a safer investment than those with low profit margins. Caledonia Mining PLC has been profitable 9 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $100 million and earnings of $1.749 a share. Its operating margin is 41.65%, which ranks better than 93% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. Overall, the profitability of Caledonia Mining PLC is ranked 8 out of 10, which indicates strong profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Caledonia Mining PLC over the past years:

Caledonia Mining PLC Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued
Caledonia Mining PLC Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued

Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term stock performance of a company. A faster growing company creates more value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth of Caledonia Mining PLC is 9.1%, which ranks better than 71% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 19%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Metals & Mining industry.

Another method of determining the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital to the weighted average cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. When the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it implies the company is creating value for shareholders. For the past 12 months, Caledonia Mining PLC's return on invested capital is 19.10, and its cost of capital is 7.16. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Caledonia Mining PLC is shown below:

Caledonia Mining PLC Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued
Caledonia Mining PLC Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued

In conclusion, The stock of Caledonia Mining PLC (AMEX:CMCL, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is strong and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. To learn more about Caledonia Mining PLC stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.

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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.