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Camden National Corporation Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Camden National Corporation (NASDAQ:CAC) just released its latest first-quarter results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 5.1% to hit US$43m. Camden National also reported a statutory profit of US$0.89, which was an impressive 28% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Camden National

NasdaqGS:CAC Past and Future Earnings May 2nd 2020
NasdaqGS:CAC Past and Future Earnings May 2nd 2020

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from three analysts covering Camden National is for revenues of US$162.4m in 2020, implying a measurable 3.2% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 13% to US$3.22 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$164.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.74 in 2020. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a nice increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$36.00, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Camden National at US$38.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$34.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of analyst estimates, it looks to us as though the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting that Camden National is an easy business to forecast or that the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast revenue decline of 3.2%, a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.3% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.9% next year. It's pretty clear that Camden National's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Camden National's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Camden National's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Camden National analysts - going out to 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Camden National (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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