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Is Cavco Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVCO) Potentially Undervalued?

Simply Wall St

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Cavco Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVCO), which is in the consumer durables business, and is based in United States, led the NASDAQGS gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Cavco Industries’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Cavco Industries

Is Cavco Industries still cheap?

Cavco Industries is currently overpriced based on my relative valuation model. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Cavco Industries’s ratio of 20.77x is above its peer average of 12.78x, which suggests the stock is overvalued compared to the Consumer Durables industry. If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Since Cavco Industries’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What does the future of Cavco Industries look like?

NasdaqGS:CVCO Past and Future Earnings, July 18th 2019

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Cavco Industries’s earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 24%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? CVCO’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above its fair value. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe CVCO should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on CVCO for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for CVCO, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Cavco Industries. You can find everything you need to know about Cavco Industries in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Cavco Industries, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.